South Carolina Suddenly Up for Grabs?

A brand new poll indicates that the race for the GOP nomination in South Carolina--a key early pivotal state--is up for grabs.

Bear in mind, however, that the poll was conducted by the Clinton News Network (CNN) which has a vested interest in playing up Huckabee due to the fact that he is the ONLY GOP contender that Hillary can beat.

The CNN poll shows that Huckabee has suddenly skyrocketed into first place by 7 points over second-place contender Fred Thompson

Here are the results of the poll:

Huckabee 24%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Paul 11%

This polling data, however, is very different from an in-state poll that shows Thompson up by 2 percentage points, but with Huckabee moving up fast.

Our most trusted and experienced poll watchers inform us that these particular poll numbers can be safely disregarded at this point in the campaign, especially the nationwide polls.

In addition, the state-by-state poll numbers are highly misleading and volatile, pointing to the vast uncertainty that still exists among a large portion of the electorate.

Suppose, for example, that we take at face value that the CNN poll listed above is accurate. Our sources tell us that with 5 candidates polling between 10 and 20 percentage points, any of them could win. In addition, the fact that Huckabee is showing a 7 point lead when just a few days ago he polled sixth in the field of candidates is highly suspect.

With three weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses and four weeks to go until the South Carolina primary, widely variant and volatile polls such as these can change in a hurry.

The bottom line is that Thompson is still very much in this ball game and Huckabee is not necessarily the front runner.

Rapidly Shifting Poll Numbers Reveal Surprises

Rarely in the history of modern politics have poll numbers shifted so rapidly within one month of the first Presidential primary. With less than a month to go until the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, and only 53 days to go until 'Super Tuesday,' brand new polling data reveals just how fluid this race has become in both Parties.

First, the big news is on the Republican side as out of nowhere Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, has taken a big lead in Iowa and is in a statistical tie nationally with Rudy Giuliani, according to the latest Rasmussen figures.

Rasmussen reports that Huckabee has skyrocketed in Iowa ahead of former front runner Mitt Romney and now leads the former Massachusetts Governor by 20 points.

The national numbers reveal even more surprises. Huckabee is in a statistical dead-heat with front-runner Rudy Giuliani. The figures are as follows: Giuliani--24%, Huckabee--23%, Romney--13%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain are tied at 10%.

The momentum with which Huckabee has emerged as a top tier candidate may well signal that he is poised to assume single front-runner status by the next round of polls.

Second, on the Democratic side we find that although Mrs. Clinton is still ahead, her polling numbers have been in a constant free-fall for the past two months...and the trend is continuing. Obama is ahead in Iowa and John Edwards is within striking distance of moving into second place, pushing Hillary back to third.

The same thing is happening in New Hampshire, and the fluidity of the polling figures has been so rapid that if the present trend continues she will lose New Hampshire as well.

South Carolina's new polling numbers indicate that support for Mrs. Clinton has slipped to a statistical tie with Barack Obama. And the reason is not the Oprah Winfrey factor.

Disturbing information has surfaced among Democratic voters that indicates Mrs. Clinton is in deep trouble regarding her character. What makes such information even more damning is that it is not coming from Republicans but from loyal voters in Democratic primaries.

Democratic voters indicate that Hillary cannot be trusted, that she is perceived as dishonest and corrupt, and that she is wearing a facade when she paints herself as a moderate although her views are actually very liberal.

These comments by Democratic voters indicate that very few of Mrs. Clinton's supporters feel passionate about the candidate, and the few who do exhibit such passion are just as likely to view her very negatively as positively.

A possible scenario is that Hillary loses Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. She then goes limping into Florida, except by then voters will have had enough time to actually THINK about Obama's lack of experience and decide to come back to Hillary. At that point Hillary wins most of the other primaries, gains the nomination, but comes out of the fight a very weakened candidate.

On the Republican side there are at least a half-dozen scenarios at play, one of which is a Huckabee sweep of Super Tuesday after winning Iowa and placing second in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

And what about Fred in the middle of all of this? Stay tuned. Thompson is going to spend nearly the entirety of the remainder of December in New Hampshire where he will criss-cross the state during the holidays making contact with voters.

The latest state-wide poll in South Carolina shows him ahead of the pack by 2 percentage points.

Thompson is popular in South Carolina. But so is Mike Huckabee. The question becomes, will the 'Huckabee surge' sweep up Thompson supporters in South Carolina? We shall see.

Rev. Huckabee and His Congregation

Much has been made over the past few days about the 'Mike Huckabee surge' in the polls both locally and nationally. Huckabee has surged to the top of the field in Iowa, and a recent national poll shows that he has moved into second place behind Giuliani and ahead of Thompson and McCain, who are tied for third.

Huckabee is going to have a tough time getting the GOP nomination despite his recent and soon to be shortlived surge.

As an ordained Baptist minister and former Governor of Arkansas, Huckabee has run into skepticism among the GOP base. At the top of the list of concerns is the Governor's record in Arkansas, which can hardly be portrayed as a shining example of conservative Republican policy.

The Party faithful are skittish on Huckabee's record on taxes and immigration, with immigration being the looming issue that is sure to eventually doom his surge.

As we have seen repeatedly in the past year, politicians in both Parties who show signs of supporting amnesty of any kind, or who support giving tuition credits to illegal aliens or their families, receive a swift and sharp kick to the behind from the voters.

Hillary Clinton is the most recent recipient of the backlash in Iowa over immigration policy.

Others who have suffered due to their stance on the issue are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and others.

Huckabee is, without doubt, highly vulnerable on the immigration issue simply because the Republican base won't stand for a candidate whose views are so geared toward granting special privileges and exceptions to people who break our nation's laws by coming here illegally.

This is not to mention the fact that it is extremely unfair to immigrants who come here legally and become citizens through the provisions of the law.

But the factor that is perhaps the most damaging of all is that Huckabee tends to appeal only to a certain type of person within the Republican base--the religious conservative. In a sense he has built his own congregation of sorts across the country made up of people who believe that the nation's President must be closely akin to a church Pastor.

To be sure, voters are looking for men and women of character, honesty, and integrity. They want plain-talking straight-shooters. However, I highly doubt that they are ready for a Baptist preacher as President, particularly one who has advocated for the belief that the Earth and Universe are only a few thousand years old.

Huckabee's congregation tends to be homogeneous. There is not enough diversity within the ranks to satisfy Jews, Catholics, spiritual agnostics, and the like. Racially and socioeconomically the congregation is almost exclusively white middle class married couples with children. Single parents and singles without children are likely to feel left out.

The final deal-breaker, however, is the fact that polls show that among the potential GOP nominees, Huckabee is the one that Mrs. Clinton would likely beat. In fact, she would trounce him in the general election.

My hunch is that the latest national polls cannot be counted upon to present a reliable picture of Huckabee's true level of support. In spite of the fact that he now polls second, it is still only Thompson, Giuliani, and Romney that would beat Mrs. Clinton if the election were held today.