Rev. Huckabee and His Congregation

Much has been made over the past few days about the 'Mike Huckabee surge' in the polls both locally and nationally. Huckabee has surged to the top of the field in Iowa, and a recent national poll shows that he has moved into second place behind Giuliani and ahead of Thompson and McCain, who are tied for third.

Huckabee is going to have a tough time getting the GOP nomination despite his recent and soon to be shortlived surge.

As an ordained Baptist minister and former Governor of Arkansas, Huckabee has run into skepticism among the GOP base. At the top of the list of concerns is the Governor's record in Arkansas, which can hardly be portrayed as a shining example of conservative Republican policy.

The Party faithful are skittish on Huckabee's record on taxes and immigration, with immigration being the looming issue that is sure to eventually doom his surge.

As we have seen repeatedly in the past year, politicians in both Parties who show signs of supporting amnesty of any kind, or who support giving tuition credits to illegal aliens or their families, receive a swift and sharp kick to the behind from the voters.

Hillary Clinton is the most recent recipient of the backlash in Iowa over immigration policy.

Others who have suffered due to their stance on the issue are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and others.

Huckabee is, without doubt, highly vulnerable on the immigration issue simply because the Republican base won't stand for a candidate whose views are so geared toward granting special privileges and exceptions to people who break our nation's laws by coming here illegally.

This is not to mention the fact that it is extremely unfair to immigrants who come here legally and become citizens through the provisions of the law.

But the factor that is perhaps the most damaging of all is that Huckabee tends to appeal only to a certain type of person within the Republican base--the religious conservative. In a sense he has built his own congregation of sorts across the country made up of people who believe that the nation's President must be closely akin to a church Pastor.

To be sure, voters are looking for men and women of character, honesty, and integrity. They want plain-talking straight-shooters. However, I highly doubt that they are ready for a Baptist preacher as President, particularly one who has advocated for the belief that the Earth and Universe are only a few thousand years old.

Huckabee's congregation tends to be homogeneous. There is not enough diversity within the ranks to satisfy Jews, Catholics, spiritual agnostics, and the like. Racially and socioeconomically the congregation is almost exclusively white middle class married couples with children. Single parents and singles without children are likely to feel left out.

The final deal-breaker, however, is the fact that polls show that among the potential GOP nominees, Huckabee is the one that Mrs. Clinton would likely beat. In fact, she would trounce him in the general election.

My hunch is that the latest national polls cannot be counted upon to present a reliable picture of Huckabee's true level of support. In spite of the fact that he now polls second, it is still only Thompson, Giuliani, and Romney that would beat Mrs. Clinton if the election were held today.