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Friday, December 14, 2007

South Carolina Suddenly Up for Grabs?

A brand new poll indicates that the race for the GOP nomination in South Carolina--a key early pivotal state--is up for grabs.

Bear in mind, however, that the poll was conducted by the Clinton News Network (CNN) which has a vested interest in playing up Huckabee due to the fact that he is the ONLY GOP contender that Hillary can beat.

The CNN poll shows that Huckabee has suddenly skyrocketed into first place by 7 points over second-place contender Fred Thompson

Here are the results of the poll:

Huckabee 24%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Paul 11%

This polling data, however, is very different from an in-state poll that shows Thompson up by 2 percentage points, but with Huckabee moving up fast.

Our most trusted and experienced poll watchers inform us that these particular poll numbers can be safely disregarded at this point in the campaign, especially the nationwide polls.

In addition, the state-by-state poll numbers are highly misleading and volatile, pointing to the vast uncertainty that still exists among a large portion of the electorate.

Suppose, for example, that we take at face value that the CNN poll listed above is accurate. Our sources tell us that with 5 candidates polling between 10 and 20 percentage points, any of them could win. In addition, the fact that Huckabee is showing a 7 point lead when just a few days ago he polled sixth in the field of candidates is highly suspect.

With three weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses and four weeks to go until the South Carolina primary, widely variant and volatile polls such as these can change in a hurry.

The bottom line is that Thompson is still very much in this ball game and Huckabee is not necessarily the front runner.

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