Rapidly Shifting Poll Numbers Reveal Surprises

Rarely in the history of modern politics have poll numbers shifted so rapidly within one month of the first Presidential primary. With less than a month to go until the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, and only 53 days to go until 'Super Tuesday,' brand new polling data reveals just how fluid this race has become in both Parties.

First, the big news is on the Republican side as out of nowhere Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, has taken a big lead in Iowa and is in a statistical tie nationally with Rudy Giuliani, according to the latest Rasmussen figures.

Rasmussen reports that Huckabee has skyrocketed in Iowa ahead of former front runner Mitt Romney and now leads the former Massachusetts Governor by 20 points.

The national numbers reveal even more surprises. Huckabee is in a statistical dead-heat with front-runner Rudy Giuliani. The figures are as follows: Giuliani--24%, Huckabee--23%, Romney--13%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain are tied at 10%.

The momentum with which Huckabee has emerged as a top tier candidate may well signal that he is poised to assume single front-runner status by the next round of polls.

Second, on the Democratic side we find that although Mrs. Clinton is still ahead, her polling numbers have been in a constant free-fall for the past two months...and the trend is continuing. Obama is ahead in Iowa and John Edwards is within striking distance of moving into second place, pushing Hillary back to third.

The same thing is happening in New Hampshire, and the fluidity of the polling figures has been so rapid that if the present trend continues she will lose New Hampshire as well.

South Carolina's new polling numbers indicate that support for Mrs. Clinton has slipped to a statistical tie with Barack Obama. And the reason is not the Oprah Winfrey factor.

Disturbing information has surfaced among Democratic voters that indicates Mrs. Clinton is in deep trouble regarding her character. What makes such information even more damning is that it is not coming from Republicans but from loyal voters in Democratic primaries.

Democratic voters indicate that Hillary cannot be trusted, that she is perceived as dishonest and corrupt, and that she is wearing a facade when she paints herself as a moderate although her views are actually very liberal.

These comments by Democratic voters indicate that very few of Mrs. Clinton's supporters feel passionate about the candidate, and the few who do exhibit such passion are just as likely to view her very negatively as positively.

A possible scenario is that Hillary loses Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. She then goes limping into Florida, except by then voters will have had enough time to actually THINK about Obama's lack of experience and decide to come back to Hillary. At that point Hillary wins most of the other primaries, gains the nomination, but comes out of the fight a very weakened candidate.

On the Republican side there are at least a half-dozen scenarios at play, one of which is a Huckabee sweep of Super Tuesday after winning Iowa and placing second in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

And what about Fred in the middle of all of this? Stay tuned. Thompson is going to spend nearly the entirety of the remainder of December in New Hampshire where he will criss-cross the state during the holidays making contact with voters.

The latest state-wide poll in South Carolina shows him ahead of the pack by 2 percentage points.

Thompson is popular in South Carolina. But so is Mike Huckabee. The question becomes, will the 'Huckabee surge' sweep up Thompson supporters in South Carolina? We shall see.