Fox News has confirmed that former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will not seek the Republican nomination for a bid for the White House in '08.
According to Fox News' Senior correspondents Chris Wallace and Carl Cameron, Mr. Gingrich decided that it was unrealistic to expect to raise 30 million dollars in the final quarter of 2007, a feat that has never been accomplished in a three-month period.
Gingrich had flirted with the idea of throwing his hat into the ring this year and stated that he would run if he could raise 30 million dollars. The former Speaker was set to announce tomorrow the formation of an exploratory committee that would have set in motion the fundraising process.
However, Mr. Gingrich concluded after carefully assessing the lay of the political landscape that such a goal was much too lofty. In addition, his candidacy would have further split the conservative vote among Republicans, most of whom at this point indicate that they prefer Fred Thompson.
With Gingrich in the race, Rudy Giuliani stood to gain the most. A Gingrich candidacy would have meant fragmentation for GOP conservatives, with Giuliani clearly reaping the benefits.
A few national polls show Giuliani ahead of Fred Thompson by anywhere from 3 to 6 percentage points. Other polls show Thompson ahead of Giuliani by 3 to 5 percentage points.
However, when one considers state-by-state straw polls and early data indicating the voting preferences of those most likely to vote in the various Republican primaries, Fred Thompson is clearly ahead of the game. Ohio is the latest state to join the Thompson bandwagon.
Information we have been able to gather around the country shows that Thompson is ahead in Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri.
Had Gingrich entered the race, at least half of these states would be a toss-up between Thompson and Gingrich.
Giuliani is ahead in states that in recent years have tended to support Democrats, such as New York, New Jersey, California, and Pennsylvania. However, Pennsylvania is ripe for the picking for a strong conservative candidate such as Thompson, with the state's rather large GOP issues-oriented groups such as gun owners and social conservatives.
This means that Giuliani will need to begin showing strength in areas that are perfect for a candidate such as Thompson. So far, we do not see Giuliani winning a single primary in the South and Southwest, two areas he desperately needs in order to win the GOP nomination.
With Gingrich out of the picture, don't be surprised by a Thompson sweep of everything south of the Mason-Dixon and west of the Mississippi, with the exception of California.
Showing posts with label Republican straw poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republican straw poll. Show all posts
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Iowa Straw Poll: Three Unlikely Winners
The Republican Party of Iowa held its heralded straw poll on Saturday. As expected Mitt Romney was declared the winner after garnering 31% of the 14,203 votes cast.
Romney's win, however, is not considered a major boost to the campaign of the former Massachusetts governor. Romney had visited the state no less than 17 times and spend a ton of money to bring his supporters to the polls.
The real story of this straw poll is that there were three unlikely winners.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee came in 2nd in spite of the fact that he spent very little money and has almost no presence on the Internet. Huckabee received 18.1% of the vote.
The real surprise of the day was that U.S. Congressman Tom Tancredo came in 4th with 13.7% of the vote. Under normal circumstances a 4th place finish would not be considered significant. With Tancredo, however, such a feat is a major step forward in his campaign.
Tancredo was considered the darkest horse of the dark horses in the Republican bid for the Presidential nomination. His first debate performance, to say the least, was unimpressive.
Yet the Colorado Congressman has gradually improved in his ability to field questions in these forums, and he can deliver a rousing speech. Thus, the dark horse candidate who was having trouble reaching 1 or 2 percent in polling numbers received a double-digit percentage of the vote in Iowa.
The third unlikely winner in the contest was Fred Thompson. Although the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee did not visit the state prior to the straw poll, and was not even formally listed on the ballot, Thompson still managed to to come in 7th, ahead of both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
Giuliani and McCain decided to skip the event.
Sam Brownback's standing in the poll was not devastating by any stretch of the imagination, but it is almost certain the candidate was not pleased with his 3rd place finish. Although the Kansas Senator received 15.3% of the vote, political observers expected Brownback to do much better.
Huckabee's 2nd place finish probably surprised the Brownback campaign as much as it did Huckabee himself.
Although Tommy Thompson came in 6th with 7.3% of the vote, campaign observers expect the candidate to drop out of the race. Thompson had stated prior to the Iowa event that unless he finished in the top three in Iowa he would announce his withdrawal.
Participation in the poll was lower than expected. GOP voters indicated that this was due to their desire for another candidate, such as Fred Thompson, who has not yet announced. Others stated that because front-runners Giuliani and McCain decided to skip this event, many of the GOP faithful stayed home.
That remains to be seen. A sizeable number of Republicans across the board in all 50 states indicate they want another choice besides the current slate of candidates.
The question is, will Fred Thompson fit the bill?
Romney's win, however, is not considered a major boost to the campaign of the former Massachusetts governor. Romney had visited the state no less than 17 times and spend a ton of money to bring his supporters to the polls.
The real story of this straw poll is that there were three unlikely winners.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee came in 2nd in spite of the fact that he spent very little money and has almost no presence on the Internet. Huckabee received 18.1% of the vote.
The real surprise of the day was that U.S. Congressman Tom Tancredo came in 4th with 13.7% of the vote. Under normal circumstances a 4th place finish would not be considered significant. With Tancredo, however, such a feat is a major step forward in his campaign.
Tancredo was considered the darkest horse of the dark horses in the Republican bid for the Presidential nomination. His first debate performance, to say the least, was unimpressive.
Yet the Colorado Congressman has gradually improved in his ability to field questions in these forums, and he can deliver a rousing speech. Thus, the dark horse candidate who was having trouble reaching 1 or 2 percent in polling numbers received a double-digit percentage of the vote in Iowa.
The third unlikely winner in the contest was Fred Thompson. Although the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee did not visit the state prior to the straw poll, and was not even formally listed on the ballot, Thompson still managed to to come in 7th, ahead of both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
Giuliani and McCain decided to skip the event.
Sam Brownback's standing in the poll was not devastating by any stretch of the imagination, but it is almost certain the candidate was not pleased with his 3rd place finish. Although the Kansas Senator received 15.3% of the vote, political observers expected Brownback to do much better.
Huckabee's 2nd place finish probably surprised the Brownback campaign as much as it did Huckabee himself.
Although Tommy Thompson came in 6th with 7.3% of the vote, campaign observers expect the candidate to drop out of the race. Thompson had stated prior to the Iowa event that unless he finished in the top three in Iowa he would announce his withdrawal.
Participation in the poll was lower than expected. GOP voters indicated that this was due to their desire for another candidate, such as Fred Thompson, who has not yet announced. Others stated that because front-runners Giuliani and McCain decided to skip this event, many of the GOP faithful stayed home.
That remains to be seen. A sizeable number of Republicans across the board in all 50 states indicate they want another choice besides the current slate of candidates.
The question is, will Fred Thompson fit the bill?
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Surprise! Hunter 3rd in Important Straw Poll
Washington, DC (TLS). South Carolina has become an extremely important destination for candidates in both Parties this year, as Party leaders designated the early South Carolina primary as a pivotal first test that could make or break a candidate. The state has received multiple visits from Republican and Democrat presidential candidates such as Duncan Hunter, R-CA, John McCain, R-AZ, Rudy Giuliani, R-NY, Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-NY, Barack Hussein Obama, D-Ill., and Chris Dodd, D-CT.
A dark horse candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination is well on his way to receiving a major boost from this week's straw poll of the Spartanburg County Republican Party. U.S. Representative Duncan Hunter, R-CA, has emerged from the back of the pack to take third place in the important Republican straw poll.
Only a few months ago pundits had totally written off the candidacy of Duncan Hunter as a long-shot at best. Lacking in the name recognition and campaign funds of front runners Giuliani and McCain, Hunter was viewed as hardly a blip on the radar screen.
Hunter's sudden rise to the top three in the Republican race has raised eyebrows among the Party elite and enlivened the hopes of conservatives who feared that there would be no one in the race to represent them in either Party. As we have reported previously on The Liberty Sphere, Duncan Hunter has resonated with the voters in the upstate of South Carolina.
As a conservative Republican stronghold, the Greenville-Spartanburg area of South Carolina is beginning to embrace the message of Duncan Hunter, who speaks of peace through strength, the sanctity of human life, including the unborn, the need for a secure border and tough immigration reform, fair trade with countries such as China which have used the millions we send their way to oppose us, and low taxes. These 'Reagan Ideals' appeal to a broad cross-section of voters in the Greenville-Spartanburg area, who still consider President Ronald Reagan as perhaps the best U.S. President of the 20th century.
Hunter was first elected to Congress during the 'Reagan Revolution' in 1980, when Reagan trounced Jimmy Carter in a landslide and swept dozens of conservative Senators and Congressmen into office with him. Reagan turned right around the did the same thing in 1984, pummeling Walter Mondale in one of the largest landslides in the history of American politics.
Since that time, Duncan Hunter has not wavered from his conservative values.
While Hunter at this point stands in third place in the Spartanburg County Straw Poll, the count is not over. Bad weather in the area Thursday and Friday forced a cancellation of the vote count before all precincts were counted. The remaining 10 precincts will be counted next week.
Here are the results of the straw poll so far, with 81 out of 92 precincts counted:
John McCain--164
Rudy Giuliani--162
Duncan Hunter--158
Sam Brownback--85
Mitt Romney--80
Newt Gingrich--33
Mike Huckabee--21
Tom Tancredo--10
John Cox--4
Ron Paul--4
Condoleeza Rice--2
Several candidates tied with one vote.
As you can see by the results, Duncan Hunter is now competitive with both Giuliani and McCain, in spite of the previous lack of name recognition and the lack of a deep war chest of campaign donations. This will most definitely change.
The Liberty Sphere was impressed early-on with Duncan Hunter. He is one of the very few in either the U.S. House or Senate that has received a perfect grade of A+ from Gun Owners of America, which rates candidates and politicians based upon their support for Second Amendment rights.
We are pleased to see Mr. Hunter come from behind and move into a position of prominence. As we have said before, Hunter may well be THE candidate around whom conservatives and 'Reagan Democrats' can rally.
A dark horse candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination is well on his way to receiving a major boost from this week's straw poll of the Spartanburg County Republican Party. U.S. Representative Duncan Hunter, R-CA, has emerged from the back of the pack to take third place in the important Republican straw poll.
Only a few months ago pundits had totally written off the candidacy of Duncan Hunter as a long-shot at best. Lacking in the name recognition and campaign funds of front runners Giuliani and McCain, Hunter was viewed as hardly a blip on the radar screen.
Hunter's sudden rise to the top three in the Republican race has raised eyebrows among the Party elite and enlivened the hopes of conservatives who feared that there would be no one in the race to represent them in either Party. As we have reported previously on The Liberty Sphere, Duncan Hunter has resonated with the voters in the upstate of South Carolina.
As a conservative Republican stronghold, the Greenville-Spartanburg area of South Carolina is beginning to embrace the message of Duncan Hunter, who speaks of peace through strength, the sanctity of human life, including the unborn, the need for a secure border and tough immigration reform, fair trade with countries such as China which have used the millions we send their way to oppose us, and low taxes. These 'Reagan Ideals' appeal to a broad cross-section of voters in the Greenville-Spartanburg area, who still consider President Ronald Reagan as perhaps the best U.S. President of the 20th century.
Hunter was first elected to Congress during the 'Reagan Revolution' in 1980, when Reagan trounced Jimmy Carter in a landslide and swept dozens of conservative Senators and Congressmen into office with him. Reagan turned right around the did the same thing in 1984, pummeling Walter Mondale in one of the largest landslides in the history of American politics.
Since that time, Duncan Hunter has not wavered from his conservative values.
While Hunter at this point stands in third place in the Spartanburg County Straw Poll, the count is not over. Bad weather in the area Thursday and Friday forced a cancellation of the vote count before all precincts were counted. The remaining 10 precincts will be counted next week.
Here are the results of the straw poll so far, with 81 out of 92 precincts counted:
John McCain--164
Rudy Giuliani--162
Duncan Hunter--158
Sam Brownback--85
Mitt Romney--80
Newt Gingrich--33
Mike Huckabee--21
Tom Tancredo--10
John Cox--4
Ron Paul--4
Condoleeza Rice--2
Several candidates tied with one vote.
As you can see by the results, Duncan Hunter is now competitive with both Giuliani and McCain, in spite of the previous lack of name recognition and the lack of a deep war chest of campaign donations. This will most definitely change.
The Liberty Sphere was impressed early-on with Duncan Hunter. He is one of the very few in either the U.S. House or Senate that has received a perfect grade of A+ from Gun Owners of America, which rates candidates and politicians based upon their support for Second Amendment rights.
We are pleased to see Mr. Hunter come from behind and move into a position of prominence. As we have said before, Hunter may well be THE candidate around whom conservatives and 'Reagan Democrats' can rally.
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