Fox News has confirmed that former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will not seek the Republican nomination for a bid for the White House in '08.
According to Fox News' Senior correspondents Chris Wallace and Carl Cameron, Mr. Gingrich decided that it was unrealistic to expect to raise 30 million dollars in the final quarter of 2007, a feat that has never been accomplished in a three-month period.
Gingrich had flirted with the idea of throwing his hat into the ring this year and stated that he would run if he could raise 30 million dollars. The former Speaker was set to announce tomorrow the formation of an exploratory committee that would have set in motion the fundraising process.
However, Mr. Gingrich concluded after carefully assessing the lay of the political landscape that such a goal was much too lofty. In addition, his candidacy would have further split the conservative vote among Republicans, most of whom at this point indicate that they prefer Fred Thompson.
With Gingrich in the race, Rudy Giuliani stood to gain the most. A Gingrich candidacy would have meant fragmentation for GOP conservatives, with Giuliani clearly reaping the benefits.
A few national polls show Giuliani ahead of Fred Thompson by anywhere from 3 to 6 percentage points. Other polls show Thompson ahead of Giuliani by 3 to 5 percentage points.
However, when one considers state-by-state straw polls and early data indicating the voting preferences of those most likely to vote in the various Republican primaries, Fred Thompson is clearly ahead of the game. Ohio is the latest state to join the Thompson bandwagon.
Information we have been able to gather around the country shows that Thompson is ahead in Ohio, Indiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri.
Had Gingrich entered the race, at least half of these states would be a toss-up between Thompson and Gingrich.
Giuliani is ahead in states that in recent years have tended to support Democrats, such as New York, New Jersey, California, and Pennsylvania. However, Pennsylvania is ripe for the picking for a strong conservative candidate such as Thompson, with the state's rather large GOP issues-oriented groups such as gun owners and social conservatives.
This means that Giuliani will need to begin showing strength in areas that are perfect for a candidate such as Thompson. So far, we do not see Giuliani winning a single primary in the South and Southwest, two areas he desperately needs in order to win the GOP nomination.
With Gingrich out of the picture, don't be surprised by a Thompson sweep of everything south of the Mason-Dixon and west of the Mississippi, with the exception of California.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
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2 comments:
I wonder if there's the possibility of a Thompson/Gingrich ticket. Thompson/Hunter might be better but either is better than the RINOs the party would ram down our throats.
I don't think Newt would go for it, but it would be fine with me, although I am partial to Duncan Hunter.
I believe that a Thompson/Huckabee ticket would be well-received.
The problem with Newt as a running mate is the same as the 'problem' with Ron Paul. Both are strong personalities who are very outspoken in their points of view. I don't think this is what the head of the ticket would be looking for in a running mate, and frankly I believe both Gingrich and Paul know this and would not be comfortable in the Number 2 position.
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