As we stand on the brink of the most significant day in politics, outside of the general election in November, several trends have become clear.
First, John McCain appears to be sailing to the GOP nomination. If the state by state polls are correct, McCain will win big. If he doesn't wrap up the nomination tomorrow, he will certainly be more than well on his way toward winning the required number of delegates to secure the nomination.
Thus, the GOP is in the process of flipping the bird at Reagan conservatives, gun owners, gun dealers and manufacturers, First Amendment stalwarts, and those who believe in the rule of law when it comes to illegal aliens...ALL of the law.
On the Democratic side the picture is murky, but we know that Obama is surging, which could spell big trouble for the Hillary Rodham Clinton campaign. At this point it appears that there will be no clear winner on Super Tuesday, which means that it may be the Democrats rather than the Republicans who head to a brokered convention in the summer.
All of this, needless to say, holds ominous implications for November. The Republican base, i.e., the conservatives, are disheartened and anything but enthused about the prospects of a McCain ticket. Democrats are as fired up as I have seen them in many, many years.
Thus, my friends, peering into my crystal ball over the next four years I see very dark clouds on the horizon for the United States of America and its liberties. I am not fool-proof in my predictions as most of you know by now. But at present, I simply do not see much to be happy about.
Showing posts with label Presidential candidates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential candidates. Show all posts
Monday, February 04, 2008
Sunday, February 03, 2008
5 Barefaced Liars on the Trail
Candidate Number One speaketh with forked tongue on illegal aliens and immigraton reform.
Candidate Number Two speaketh with forked tongue on Iraq.
Candidate Number Three speaketh with forked tongue on his support of the Second Amendment.
Candidate Number Four speaketh with forked tongue on the same thing as Candidate Number Three.
And Candidate Number Five speaketh with forked tongue on taxes.
Liars, each and every one. Can you guess which is which on this list?
One thing is for sure, Ron Paul is not one of them. To his credit, Paul has told the truth, even if it is distasteful. For example, I am convinced that when Paul says he believes terrorism was created by U.S. mistakes in foreign policy, he fully believes what he is saying, although I thoroughly disagree.
As for the rest of the field of candidates, each have been shown conclusively to have the tendency to say anything to get elected.
The precious 'straight-talking' John McCain claims to have seen the light on illegal aliens, yet he still has no proposal to force illegals to get in the back of the line along with honorable people who want to come here legally. Their 'work history' here in America is a non-issue. They are still illegals who have committed crimes and broken our laws just by being here.
Hillary? ROFL! 'If I knew then what I know now, I would have blah, blah, blah...' She knew all about Iraq because of her husband's assessment that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.
Barack Obama claims he supports the Second Amendment. Yeah, what part? Apparently he supports that invisible part of the Amendment that talks about 'hunters' rights,' because this is all he mentioned with connection to gun rights. In fact, his long history in the Illinois legislature shows he supports a nationwide, total ban on handguns.
Mitt has been a bit better than Obama on the matter of the Second Amendment, yet Mitt has always portrayed a rather skittish attitude toward 'assault weapons' and handguns. There is no doubt he has supported gun control of some kind his entire political career.
And as for Huckabee, it's too bad he is a big government Republican who raised Arkansas taxes, although he claims he lowered them. He is great on gun rights, abortion, and healthcare, but absolutely dangerously naive when it comes to foreign policy, Iraq, and the U.S. military.
What a motley crew of C-grade purveyors of mediocrity!
Candidate Number Two speaketh with forked tongue on Iraq.
Candidate Number Three speaketh with forked tongue on his support of the Second Amendment.
Candidate Number Four speaketh with forked tongue on the same thing as Candidate Number Three.
And Candidate Number Five speaketh with forked tongue on taxes.
Liars, each and every one. Can you guess which is which on this list?
One thing is for sure, Ron Paul is not one of them. To his credit, Paul has told the truth, even if it is distasteful. For example, I am convinced that when Paul says he believes terrorism was created by U.S. mistakes in foreign policy, he fully believes what he is saying, although I thoroughly disagree.
As for the rest of the field of candidates, each have been shown conclusively to have the tendency to say anything to get elected.
The precious 'straight-talking' John McCain claims to have seen the light on illegal aliens, yet he still has no proposal to force illegals to get in the back of the line along with honorable people who want to come here legally. Their 'work history' here in America is a non-issue. They are still illegals who have committed crimes and broken our laws just by being here.
Hillary? ROFL! 'If I knew then what I know now, I would have blah, blah, blah...' She knew all about Iraq because of her husband's assessment that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.
Barack Obama claims he supports the Second Amendment. Yeah, what part? Apparently he supports that invisible part of the Amendment that talks about 'hunters' rights,' because this is all he mentioned with connection to gun rights. In fact, his long history in the Illinois legislature shows he supports a nationwide, total ban on handguns.
Mitt has been a bit better than Obama on the matter of the Second Amendment, yet Mitt has always portrayed a rather skittish attitude toward 'assault weapons' and handguns. There is no doubt he has supported gun control of some kind his entire political career.
And as for Huckabee, it's too bad he is a big government Republican who raised Arkansas taxes, although he claims he lowered them. He is great on gun rights, abortion, and healthcare, but absolutely dangerously naive when it comes to foreign policy, Iraq, and the U.S. military.
What a motley crew of C-grade purveyors of mediocrity!
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Surprise in New Hampshire
Defying all of the polls, the expectations, and the pundits' predictions, Hillary Rodham Clinton has emerged as the winner of the New Hampshire Primary on the Democratic side.
Barack Obama, who conceded to Clinton roughly 30 minutes ago, came in 2nd in a close race separated by only an estimated 5000 votes.
John Edwards same in a distant third with 12% of the vote.
As expected, on the Republican side John McCain cruised to a victory over Mitt Romney. McCain is now back in the race in a big way following a difficult summer during which he had been given up for dead.
Mike Huckabee came in a distant 3rd in New Hampshire with 11% of the vote. Rudy Giuliani placed 4th, Ron Paul placed 5th, Fred Thompson came in 6th, and Duncan Hunter placed 7th.
In the delegate count for the GOP, only John McCain emerges with delegates for the GOP Convention. McCain thus joins Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and Duncan Hunter as the GOP candidates who have won delegates so far.
Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul have yet to win any delegates toward the GOP nomination.
Barack Obama, who conceded to Clinton roughly 30 minutes ago, came in 2nd in a close race separated by only an estimated 5000 votes.
John Edwards same in a distant third with 12% of the vote.
As expected, on the Republican side John McCain cruised to a victory over Mitt Romney. McCain is now back in the race in a big way following a difficult summer during which he had been given up for dead.
Mike Huckabee came in a distant 3rd in New Hampshire with 11% of the vote. Rudy Giuliani placed 4th, Ron Paul placed 5th, Fred Thompson came in 6th, and Duncan Hunter placed 7th.
In the delegate count for the GOP, only John McCain emerges with delegates for the GOP Convention. McCain thus joins Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and Duncan Hunter as the GOP candidates who have won delegates so far.
Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul have yet to win any delegates toward the GOP nomination.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Major Poll Shows McCain in First Place
Could it be true?
We have heard reports out of New Hampshire that GOP Presidential hopeful John McCain's crowds have dramatically swelled in recent days and that there is a new buzz being generated about the candidate that he is the one to watch.
On the heels of those reports comes the news, released yesterday, that McCain is in first place in a major poll released over the weekend.
Two things to consider: first, this is the only poll among the top polling organizations that places McCain in the lead, and second, his lead in this particular poll is tenuous. At least three other candidates are within easy striking distance...Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee.
The biggest news of all, however, lays buried within the poll results--news that seems to be confirmed across the board among ALL of the major polling organizations. That news is that Rudy Giuliani's stock has been devalued--dramatically.
The former New York City Mayor has experienced a sharp decline in support over the past three months, totally dropping out of the top tier of candidates in some polls. He barely registers at all in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--the three early primary states.
Aides to the Mayor state that his strategy has been to focus on later primary states that carry huge delegate counts, such as Florida and others.
But this is a risky endeavor, particularly if someone emerges from the first three primaries with momentum.
McCain's stock has risen for three basic reasons--one, the success of the resurgence in Iraq, for which McCain had advocated for years and which has resulted in a dramatic drop in violence; two, his maturity, experience, and wisdom that are vital in a dangerous world; and three, his willingness to amend his positions on issues that do not find widespread support among the voters.
When the electorate takes him to the woodshed over his support of amnesty for illegal aliens and the McCain-Feingold debacle, McCain listens.
Thus, McCain has a good chance at winning New Hampshire. But he has troubles down the line.
So, stay tuned. It's getting very interesting out there. And Iowa looms large on Thursday of this week.
We have heard reports out of New Hampshire that GOP Presidential hopeful John McCain's crowds have dramatically swelled in recent days and that there is a new buzz being generated about the candidate that he is the one to watch.
On the heels of those reports comes the news, released yesterday, that McCain is in first place in a major poll released over the weekend.
Two things to consider: first, this is the only poll among the top polling organizations that places McCain in the lead, and second, his lead in this particular poll is tenuous. At least three other candidates are within easy striking distance...Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee.
The biggest news of all, however, lays buried within the poll results--news that seems to be confirmed across the board among ALL of the major polling organizations. That news is that Rudy Giuliani's stock has been devalued--dramatically.
The former New York City Mayor has experienced a sharp decline in support over the past three months, totally dropping out of the top tier of candidates in some polls. He barely registers at all in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--the three early primary states.
Aides to the Mayor state that his strategy has been to focus on later primary states that carry huge delegate counts, such as Florida and others.
But this is a risky endeavor, particularly if someone emerges from the first three primaries with momentum.
McCain's stock has risen for three basic reasons--one, the success of the resurgence in Iraq, for which McCain had advocated for years and which has resulted in a dramatic drop in violence; two, his maturity, experience, and wisdom that are vital in a dangerous world; and three, his willingness to amend his positions on issues that do not find widespread support among the voters.
When the electorate takes him to the woodshed over his support of amnesty for illegal aliens and the McCain-Feingold debacle, McCain listens.
Thus, McCain has a good chance at winning New Hampshire. But he has troubles down the line.
So, stay tuned. It's getting very interesting out there. And Iowa looms large on Thursday of this week.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
A Dream Scenario: Brokered Conventions
Political junkies like me who are old enough to remember the drama of political conventions have secretly held onto a dream, a wish, for 2008--brokered conventions.
I have become convinced that the absolute best thing that could happen for American politics in 2008 is for the choice as to who will head the Republican and Democratic tickets to be made at the respective political conventions this coming summer.
For the past 15 to 20 years, political conventions have become all but obsolete, with the choices for the two Parties being made by the primary system in the various states long before the time for the conventions.
Thus, the conventions have become nothing more than a coronation, a showcase, a week-long political commercial for the already-agreed-upon candidate.
The drama is entirely gone.
This year may change all of that. Despite Hillary Clinton's desire for the Democratic National Convention of '08 to be her coronation, that is highly unlikely given her strong opposition from Barack Obama and John Edwards.
In like manner, as Rudy Giuliani's star fades and Mike Huckabee rides a tide of near-cult-worship, GOP conservatives are left unimpressed. They want to vote for Fred Thompson, but somehow the highly unrealistic expectations placed upon Thompson have tended to hurt him severely.
They may yet decide that he is their man in the long run.
But this decision may well not happen until the GOP National Convention in the summer. Fred appears likely to win South Carolina. He could win in Iowa, but at present it appears either Huckabee or Romney will win, although male voters in Iowa have recently turned away from Huckabee. In New Hampshire, John McCain appears to be surging to the head of the pack.
This could well set up a trend that will continue right up to the Convention--the primaries will be split between 3 or 4 candidates, perhaps even 5, meaning that the decision will have to be made at the Convention.
My, what drama. I love it.
If this scenario is played out, it will mean that deals will have to be made. Compromises will have to be negotiated. Behind-the-scenes power plays will be the order of the day, just like in the old days.
I am reminded of the high drama of the 1980 Republican National Convention, when nominee Ronald Reagan offered the job of running-mate to former President Gerald R. Ford as a means of healing a rift in the GOP.
At first Ford took the offer very seriously. It became the talk of the nation.
And then Ford dropped a bombshell. He told Reagan that he would accept only if Reagan would agree to make Ford a 'co-President,' sharing the duties of the office together.
Wow. The Ford ultimatum dominated the news for days. It was Walter Cronkite's dream.
Then Reagan made the only decision he could. He turned down Ford's offer for the sake of the Constitution and common sense. George H.W. Bush was chosen as his running-mate, and the two went on to beat Jimmy Carter in a landslide.
With the great fluidity of the electorate leading up to the primaries this year, and as no clear front runner is apparent, perhaps this is the year that the political convention will return to politics as a relevant and needed entity.
I have become convinced that the absolute best thing that could happen for American politics in 2008 is for the choice as to who will head the Republican and Democratic tickets to be made at the respective political conventions this coming summer.
For the past 15 to 20 years, political conventions have become all but obsolete, with the choices for the two Parties being made by the primary system in the various states long before the time for the conventions.
Thus, the conventions have become nothing more than a coronation, a showcase, a week-long political commercial for the already-agreed-upon candidate.
The drama is entirely gone.
This year may change all of that. Despite Hillary Clinton's desire for the Democratic National Convention of '08 to be her coronation, that is highly unlikely given her strong opposition from Barack Obama and John Edwards.
In like manner, as Rudy Giuliani's star fades and Mike Huckabee rides a tide of near-cult-worship, GOP conservatives are left unimpressed. They want to vote for Fred Thompson, but somehow the highly unrealistic expectations placed upon Thompson have tended to hurt him severely.
They may yet decide that he is their man in the long run.
But this decision may well not happen until the GOP National Convention in the summer. Fred appears likely to win South Carolina. He could win in Iowa, but at present it appears either Huckabee or Romney will win, although male voters in Iowa have recently turned away from Huckabee. In New Hampshire, John McCain appears to be surging to the head of the pack.
This could well set up a trend that will continue right up to the Convention--the primaries will be split between 3 or 4 candidates, perhaps even 5, meaning that the decision will have to be made at the Convention.
My, what drama. I love it.
If this scenario is played out, it will mean that deals will have to be made. Compromises will have to be negotiated. Behind-the-scenes power plays will be the order of the day, just like in the old days.
I am reminded of the high drama of the 1980 Republican National Convention, when nominee Ronald Reagan offered the job of running-mate to former President Gerald R. Ford as a means of healing a rift in the GOP.
At first Ford took the offer very seriously. It became the talk of the nation.
And then Ford dropped a bombshell. He told Reagan that he would accept only if Reagan would agree to make Ford a 'co-President,' sharing the duties of the office together.
Wow. The Ford ultimatum dominated the news for days. It was Walter Cronkite's dream.
Then Reagan made the only decision he could. He turned down Ford's offer for the sake of the Constitution and common sense. George H.W. Bush was chosen as his running-mate, and the two went on to beat Jimmy Carter in a landslide.
With the great fluidity of the electorate leading up to the primaries this year, and as no clear front runner is apparent, perhaps this is the year that the political convention will return to politics as a relevant and needed entity.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Race Wide Open 9 Days Before Iowa Caucuses
With only 9 days to go until the Iowa Caucuses, polls are showing a wide open race in both Parties.
Although Mike Huckabee has opened a fairly large lead in the GOP race over 2nd place contender Mitt Romney and 3rd place contender Fred Thompson, any of the three are within striking distance and could pull out a last-minute surge to put them over the top.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton maintains a very small lead over 2nd place contender Barack Obama. In fact, the two are locked into a statistical tie. John Edwards is running a close third. Here again, any of the top three could easily win.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the setting of the first primary, Mitt Romney holds on to a very slight lead against a surging John McCain, who is only two points behind--once again a statistical dead-heat.
Hillary Clinton maintains a slight lead in New Hampshire, although some polls show Barack Obama in the lead. Once again John Edwards is running a close third.
We will not attempt any predictions at this point due to the highly fluid nature of the race, except for two. It is beginning to appear that Barack Obama will beat Hillary in Iowa. Momentum is on his side.
In like manner, it looks as if John McCain will pull off the miracle of his political career and win New Hampshire, due to the very same factor as Obama in Iowa--momentum.
HOT TIP: Don't be surprised to see John McCain defy all the predictions of his demise and win not one but several primaries. We are not saying he will win the nomination, but as it becomes more apparent that conservatives are still on the fence, they may well break for McCain at the last minute due to his war hero status, his experience, and his perceived ability to work with political opponents to reach compromise.
We have our problems with McCain, as we have stated repeatedly. But he is fairly strong on issues such as gun rights, foreign policy, the war on terror, abortion, and healthcare.
Nonetheless, we still see Fred Thompson as the strongest alternative to Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani. Although he is in 3rd place in Iowa, he is still within easy striking distance of the win.
Although Mike Huckabee has opened a fairly large lead in the GOP race over 2nd place contender Mitt Romney and 3rd place contender Fred Thompson, any of the three are within striking distance and could pull out a last-minute surge to put them over the top.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton maintains a very small lead over 2nd place contender Barack Obama. In fact, the two are locked into a statistical tie. John Edwards is running a close third. Here again, any of the top three could easily win.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the setting of the first primary, Mitt Romney holds on to a very slight lead against a surging John McCain, who is only two points behind--once again a statistical dead-heat.
Hillary Clinton maintains a slight lead in New Hampshire, although some polls show Barack Obama in the lead. Once again John Edwards is running a close third.
We will not attempt any predictions at this point due to the highly fluid nature of the race, except for two. It is beginning to appear that Barack Obama will beat Hillary in Iowa. Momentum is on his side.
In like manner, it looks as if John McCain will pull off the miracle of his political career and win New Hampshire, due to the very same factor as Obama in Iowa--momentum.
HOT TIP: Don't be surprised to see John McCain defy all the predictions of his demise and win not one but several primaries. We are not saying he will win the nomination, but as it becomes more apparent that conservatives are still on the fence, they may well break for McCain at the last minute due to his war hero status, his experience, and his perceived ability to work with political opponents to reach compromise.
We have our problems with McCain, as we have stated repeatedly. But he is fairly strong on issues such as gun rights, foreign policy, the war on terror, abortion, and healthcare.
Nonetheless, we still see Fred Thompson as the strongest alternative to Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani. Although he is in 3rd place in Iowa, he is still within easy striking distance of the win.
Friday, August 10, 2007
'08 Nominees Chosen by Thanksgiving?
In a display that gives one reason to wonder if Party leaders in the various states have taken leave of their senses, the South Carolina Republican Party announced on Thursday that it will move up its GOP primary to Jan. 19.
This action will set into motion yet another chain of events that will result in the move by other states to schedule their primaries earlier.
New Hampshire will surely be the first to make the move. By state law their primary must be the first in the nation, meaning that the New Hampshire date will more than likely be set for Jan. 12.
Iowa, however, is bound and determined to protect its status for having the very first shot at voting by scheduling their time-honored tradition of holding caucuses before the New Hampshire primary, meaning that in all likelihood the Iowa caucuses will be scheduled in December.
We have already been through this before, resulting in a ridiculously early round of caucuses and primaries--the earliest in U.S. history. The question becomes, will the other primary states follow suit and move up their dates, thus prompting South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa to move up their dates even further?
If that happens, it is entirely possible that the nominees for both Parties could be chosen by Thanksgiving.
Far-fetched, you say? Well, who would have thought we be looking at having the Iowa caucuses in December?
In case you are wondering who is to blame for this blatant game of oneupmanship, look no further than the state of Florida. Defying Republican and Democratic National Committee rules that forbid state primaries before Feb. 5, Florida Republicans and Democrats decided to move their primary to Jan. 29.
The penalty for defying the rules is that the RNC and the DNC withhold half of the delegates of the offending states to the Party Conventions, meaning that those states' voting power at the Conventions is greatly diminished.
These states, however, believe that whoever is their Party's nominee will take over the national committees before the Party Conventions, which means that the rules will not be enforced.
Thus, yet another piece of the drama, credibility, and necessity of the Party Conventions is nullified.
And in the end the Parties lose, the candidates lose, and America loses.
To prevent the present undesirable state of affairs in which voters are already growing weary of the process, the national committees of the two Parties should immediately enforce the rules rather than wait until the Conventions. The penalties for moving up a primary to a ridiculously early date should be immediate and devastating.
And it should not be dependent on who is in control of the committee at any given moment in time.
Perhaps the DNC and the RNC should inform the various states that NONE of their delegates will be seated at the Conventions unless they adhere to the Feb. 5 requirement.
Then we could all watch at how quickly the various states decide to move their primaries to later rather than earlier dates.
Part of the allure of American politics is the drama inherent in the process. Through the years we have just about removed all of that drama, and the voters are yawning and going back to sleep.
Just what, exactly, are the candidates and the voters going to do if everything has been decided by Christmas? This will mean we will have to wait another eleven months for the general election. Such a situation will be ripe for even more trivializing of the political process by the tabloid-driven mainstream media.
It simply does not take eleven months to discuss and debate the issues related to a national election. Many have suggested that the present practice of having one or two debates by the candidates of the two major Parties is not enough, and that a series of debates will be much better.
But even that is a far cry from being forced to endure nearly a year of campaigning.
What do you talk about when you run out of things to talk about?
Nothing of any importance, that's for sure. And this is why I maintain that the stage is being set for tabloid journalism to have a field-day during the 2008 election cycle.
This action will set into motion yet another chain of events that will result in the move by other states to schedule their primaries earlier.
New Hampshire will surely be the first to make the move. By state law their primary must be the first in the nation, meaning that the New Hampshire date will more than likely be set for Jan. 12.
Iowa, however, is bound and determined to protect its status for having the very first shot at voting by scheduling their time-honored tradition of holding caucuses before the New Hampshire primary, meaning that in all likelihood the Iowa caucuses will be scheduled in December.
We have already been through this before, resulting in a ridiculously early round of caucuses and primaries--the earliest in U.S. history. The question becomes, will the other primary states follow suit and move up their dates, thus prompting South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa to move up their dates even further?
If that happens, it is entirely possible that the nominees for both Parties could be chosen by Thanksgiving.
Far-fetched, you say? Well, who would have thought we be looking at having the Iowa caucuses in December?
In case you are wondering who is to blame for this blatant game of oneupmanship, look no further than the state of Florida. Defying Republican and Democratic National Committee rules that forbid state primaries before Feb. 5, Florida Republicans and Democrats decided to move their primary to Jan. 29.
The penalty for defying the rules is that the RNC and the DNC withhold half of the delegates of the offending states to the Party Conventions, meaning that those states' voting power at the Conventions is greatly diminished.
These states, however, believe that whoever is their Party's nominee will take over the national committees before the Party Conventions, which means that the rules will not be enforced.
Thus, yet another piece of the drama, credibility, and necessity of the Party Conventions is nullified.
And in the end the Parties lose, the candidates lose, and America loses.
To prevent the present undesirable state of affairs in which voters are already growing weary of the process, the national committees of the two Parties should immediately enforce the rules rather than wait until the Conventions. The penalties for moving up a primary to a ridiculously early date should be immediate and devastating.
And it should not be dependent on who is in control of the committee at any given moment in time.
Perhaps the DNC and the RNC should inform the various states that NONE of their delegates will be seated at the Conventions unless they adhere to the Feb. 5 requirement.
Then we could all watch at how quickly the various states decide to move their primaries to later rather than earlier dates.
Part of the allure of American politics is the drama inherent in the process. Through the years we have just about removed all of that drama, and the voters are yawning and going back to sleep.
Just what, exactly, are the candidates and the voters going to do if everything has been decided by Christmas? This will mean we will have to wait another eleven months for the general election. Such a situation will be ripe for even more trivializing of the political process by the tabloid-driven mainstream media.
It simply does not take eleven months to discuss and debate the issues related to a national election. Many have suggested that the present practice of having one or two debates by the candidates of the two major Parties is not enough, and that a series of debates will be much better.
But even that is a far cry from being forced to endure nearly a year of campaigning.
What do you talk about when you run out of things to talk about?
Nothing of any importance, that's for sure. And this is why I maintain that the stage is being set for tabloid journalism to have a field-day during the 2008 election cycle.
Monday, July 30, 2007
South Carolina and the Presidency
South Carolina normally would not be considered a powerhouse in national politics--a least not in terms of perception. That is about to change.
The state will host one of the earliest primaries in the nation in 2008, and thus, candidates in both Parties have already been frequent visitors to the Palmetto state.
Sensing that the state is crucial in garnering the required number of delegate votes at the political Conventions, candidates are not leaving anything to chance. Republican Duncan Hunter announced his Presidential bid here. Ron Paul has been here twice. So have Hillary and Obama.
Yet South Carolina is actually more crucial to the Republican candidates than that of the Democrats. The state is now thoroughly Republican. Both of its U.S. Senators are Republicans. So is the Governor. The state legislature is controlled by Republicans.
Thus, this is a test state for the Republicans. Whoever wins here will more than likely win the Party's nomination for the White House.
Although S.C.'s U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint belong to the same Party, the two are actually as different as night and day. Graham is solidly behind McCain and has been rumored to be a potential running mate for the Arizona Senator, should he win the nomination.
Graham has also created some enemies for himself among the Party faithful here, with his front-lines support of the McCain-Ted Kennedy-George Bush immigration amnesty plan.
Rumors are that the Senator may be in trouble during his next re-election campaign, and he already has some opposition from two Republican candidates who are intent on wresting the nomination away from Graham.
Jim DeMint, on the other hand, has become a favorite of the Party faithful in S.C. with his staunch opposition to the amnesty bill that Graham supported. DeMint also supports Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, although his backing has not helped the candidate move to the top of the pack.
Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani have strong support in the state, but polls have shown that South Carolina will probably go to Fred Thompson, assuming that Thompson will declare his candidacy.
On the Democratic side, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have shown solid support among Democrats in the state. Despite John Edwards' strong ties here and his upbringing in neighboring North Carolina, he has not been able to create very much excitement for his campaign.
In all likelihood, the candidates who win South Carolina will be their Party's nominee for the Presidency. At this point it would appear that those candidates will be Fred Thompson and Hillary Clinton.
And thus, South Carolina will have a large hand in choosing the next President.
The state will host one of the earliest primaries in the nation in 2008, and thus, candidates in both Parties have already been frequent visitors to the Palmetto state.
Sensing that the state is crucial in garnering the required number of delegate votes at the political Conventions, candidates are not leaving anything to chance. Republican Duncan Hunter announced his Presidential bid here. Ron Paul has been here twice. So have Hillary and Obama.
Yet South Carolina is actually more crucial to the Republican candidates than that of the Democrats. The state is now thoroughly Republican. Both of its U.S. Senators are Republicans. So is the Governor. The state legislature is controlled by Republicans.
Thus, this is a test state for the Republicans. Whoever wins here will more than likely win the Party's nomination for the White House.
Although S.C.'s U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint belong to the same Party, the two are actually as different as night and day. Graham is solidly behind McCain and has been rumored to be a potential running mate for the Arizona Senator, should he win the nomination.
Graham has also created some enemies for himself among the Party faithful here, with his front-lines support of the McCain-Ted Kennedy-George Bush immigration amnesty plan.
Rumors are that the Senator may be in trouble during his next re-election campaign, and he already has some opposition from two Republican candidates who are intent on wresting the nomination away from Graham.
Jim DeMint, on the other hand, has become a favorite of the Party faithful in S.C. with his staunch opposition to the amnesty bill that Graham supported. DeMint also supports Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, although his backing has not helped the candidate move to the top of the pack.
Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani have strong support in the state, but polls have shown that South Carolina will probably go to Fred Thompson, assuming that Thompson will declare his candidacy.
On the Democratic side, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have shown solid support among Democrats in the state. Despite John Edwards' strong ties here and his upbringing in neighboring North Carolina, he has not been able to create very much excitement for his campaign.
In all likelihood, the candidates who win South Carolina will be their Party's nominee for the Presidency. At this point it would appear that those candidates will be Fred Thompson and Hillary Clinton.
And thus, South Carolina will have a large hand in choosing the next President.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Jim Gilmore Drops Out of Republican Race
Washington, DC (TLS). Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore announced today that he is dropping out of the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Citing money woes, Gilmore stated that there was not enough spendable cash to sustain the campaign.
Gilmore is surely to be merely the first in a string of candidates who will announce their departure. The most high-profile of these is John McCain who, despite the insistence that he will fight on, is facing his own money woes. Others who are in dire financial straits include Democrats Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich, and Republicans Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo.
In addition, while Democratic Senator Joe Biden has done well in the debates, he has not exactly set the woods on fire with fundraising. While we believe that Biden is a serious candidate, we look for him to decide to stay in the Senate rather than continue with a campaign that so far is appearing lackluster.
The impending entry of former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson into the race will definitely change the entire makeup of the campaign. Sources inform us that Thompson is already poised not only to be the front-runner but the top fundraiser as well, right out of the starting gate.
Republican and Independent activists with deep pockets have either already committed or will commit to giving the candidate large sums of money that will not only rival but surpass the campaign cash raised by Rudy Giuliani.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul continues with his grassroots surge, raising 2 million in the last three months, mainly from online contributions. We see his prospects continuing to improve as time progresses.
Something to think about--perhaps Ron Paul's 'ace in the hole' is his stance against the War in Iraq. Among Republicans not only is this rare but it is seen almost as anathema.
However, given the present mindset of the electorate as a whole, independents, libertarians, and disenchanted Democrats may well come flocking to the Ron Paul campaign because of the War.
And this is not to mention the fact that many conservative Republicans, though openly castigating Paul on his stance on the War, privately express delight over his emphasis on the return to core conservative values, such as small government and low taxes.
The Liberty Sphere still puts its money on Fred Thompson, although we like Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul.
But as they say in politics, it really is getting interesting out there, isn't it?
Citing money woes, Gilmore stated that there was not enough spendable cash to sustain the campaign.
Gilmore is surely to be merely the first in a string of candidates who will announce their departure. The most high-profile of these is John McCain who, despite the insistence that he will fight on, is facing his own money woes. Others who are in dire financial straits include Democrats Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich, and Republicans Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo.
In addition, while Democratic Senator Joe Biden has done well in the debates, he has not exactly set the woods on fire with fundraising. While we believe that Biden is a serious candidate, we look for him to decide to stay in the Senate rather than continue with a campaign that so far is appearing lackluster.
The impending entry of former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson into the race will definitely change the entire makeup of the campaign. Sources inform us that Thompson is already poised not only to be the front-runner but the top fundraiser as well, right out of the starting gate.
Republican and Independent activists with deep pockets have either already committed or will commit to giving the candidate large sums of money that will not only rival but surpass the campaign cash raised by Rudy Giuliani.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul continues with his grassroots surge, raising 2 million in the last three months, mainly from online contributions. We see his prospects continuing to improve as time progresses.
Something to think about--perhaps Ron Paul's 'ace in the hole' is his stance against the War in Iraq. Among Republicans not only is this rare but it is seen almost as anathema.
However, given the present mindset of the electorate as a whole, independents, libertarians, and disenchanted Democrats may well come flocking to the Ron Paul campaign because of the War.
And this is not to mention the fact that many conservative Republicans, though openly castigating Paul on his stance on the War, privately express delight over his emphasis on the return to core conservative values, such as small government and low taxes.
The Liberty Sphere still puts its money on Fred Thompson, although we like Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul.
But as they say in politics, it really is getting interesting out there, isn't it?
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
McCain Campaign Starts to Unravel
Washington, DC (TLS). All of Washington is abuzz this afternoon with the announcement of some key resignations within the John McCain campaign that could well spell the end of his bid for the Presidency.
McCain's chief political strategist and his campaign manager both announced their resignations today in a major shakeup that most insiders say bodes ill for the candidate.
The two key staff members have been McCain loyalists from the start.
One top Republican operative stated that the departure of the two key players in McCain's inner circle is earth-shattering news that could have ominous ramifications down the road for the candidate.
Stating that major shakeups such as these rarely turn out well, the operative said that it would be very easy at this point for the entire campaign to unravel. McCain's cash woes certainly play into this assessment, but without the energy, drive, and strategy offered by the two staffers who are now gone, the McCain campaign finds itself at a turning point.
Can McCain carry on without two of his most trusted and loyal operatives?
One Beltway strategist answers that question with a resounding 'no.' McCain has already suffered from his support of the disastrous immigration reform bill. And, despite the fact that the candidate is a certified war hero--a Viet Nam Vet who underwent the most gruelling and torturous experiences of being a prisoner of war--his unswerving support of the Iraq War has not won him any votes.
As Americans, unfortunately, turn their backs on the War on Terror and its tributary in Iraq, they increasingly view with suspicion politicians such as McCain who support the President's strategy almost without question.
In addition, the Senator's record on gun rights and taxes has certainly not won him any support with the Republican base.
And the worst news of all for McCain is that he has now fallen to fourth place in available campaign cash as rival Ron Paul has surged ahead into third place.
The real energy within the Republican field of candidates revolves around Fred Thompson and Ron Paul. Most politicos are increasingly regarding the McCain campaign as a lackluster attempt to recapture the energy surrounding his campaign in 2000.
That energy and momentum is simply gone this time around.
As one Republican operative stated today, 'Now that his top lieutenants are gone, look for more to leave. And look for the money to start drying up as well.'
McCain's chief political strategist and his campaign manager both announced their resignations today in a major shakeup that most insiders say bodes ill for the candidate.
The two key staff members have been McCain loyalists from the start.
One top Republican operative stated that the departure of the two key players in McCain's inner circle is earth-shattering news that could have ominous ramifications down the road for the candidate.
Stating that major shakeups such as these rarely turn out well, the operative said that it would be very easy at this point for the entire campaign to unravel. McCain's cash woes certainly play into this assessment, but without the energy, drive, and strategy offered by the two staffers who are now gone, the McCain campaign finds itself at a turning point.
Can McCain carry on without two of his most trusted and loyal operatives?
One Beltway strategist answers that question with a resounding 'no.' McCain has already suffered from his support of the disastrous immigration reform bill. And, despite the fact that the candidate is a certified war hero--a Viet Nam Vet who underwent the most gruelling and torturous experiences of being a prisoner of war--his unswerving support of the Iraq War has not won him any votes.
As Americans, unfortunately, turn their backs on the War on Terror and its tributary in Iraq, they increasingly view with suspicion politicians such as McCain who support the President's strategy almost without question.
In addition, the Senator's record on gun rights and taxes has certainly not won him any support with the Republican base.
And the worst news of all for McCain is that he has now fallen to fourth place in available campaign cash as rival Ron Paul has surged ahead into third place.
The real energy within the Republican field of candidates revolves around Fred Thompson and Ron Paul. Most politicos are increasingly regarding the McCain campaign as a lackluster attempt to recapture the energy surrounding his campaign in 2000.
That energy and momentum is simply gone this time around.
As one Republican operative stated today, 'Now that his top lieutenants are gone, look for more to leave. And look for the money to start drying up as well.'
Monday, July 09, 2007
The Ron Paul Surge
Washington, DC (TLS). With 2.5 million dollars in cash on hand, U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) finds himself at the top of the second tier Republican candidates in terms of the amount raised in campaign funds. In terms of the amount of spendable cash, Rep. Paul has moved up into the top tier, surpassing John McCain and placing third behind Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
McCain has raised more money overall than Dr. Paul. Yet McCain finds himself in a precarious situation of waning support, falling poll numbers, and only 2 million in cash left in the bank due to the overly-optimistic spending of the 21 million he has raised.
As McCain finds himself on the downward slide, Dr. Paul is surging ahead. Even the mainstream media has taken notice.
The Ron Paul organization has been largely a grassroots movement right from the start. The candidate has an entire volunteer army of citizens who promote Dr. Paul through blogs, emails, text messages, and other free publicity. This has enabled the candidate to run on a shoestring budget with very little overhead.
Thus, that 2.5 million he has in the bank will not be gobbled up by staff salaries, a gruelling travel schedule, or slick campaign ads on TV.
This gives the candidate the freedom to decide where he wants to focus in terms of campaign logistics and strategy.
Admittedly, having a mere 2.5 million in the bank is in all likelihood woefully inadequate in this day and age, given the nature of the 2008 campaign and its ridiculously early primaries. That all-important deadline of January 1, 2008 is moving closer and closer.
Remember, each candidate will need 100 million bucks by Jan. 1 in order to be competitive.
Even Dr. Paul recognizes that his candidacy is a long shot. But who would have thought back in March that Ron Paul would come in fourth in terms of overall fundraising among Republicans, and third in terms of available cash on hand?
Ron Paul can now be competitive with both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And this has caught almost everyone by surprise.
McCain has raised more money overall than Dr. Paul. Yet McCain finds himself in a precarious situation of waning support, falling poll numbers, and only 2 million in cash left in the bank due to the overly-optimistic spending of the 21 million he has raised.
As McCain finds himself on the downward slide, Dr. Paul is surging ahead. Even the mainstream media has taken notice.
The Ron Paul organization has been largely a grassroots movement right from the start. The candidate has an entire volunteer army of citizens who promote Dr. Paul through blogs, emails, text messages, and other free publicity. This has enabled the candidate to run on a shoestring budget with very little overhead.
Thus, that 2.5 million he has in the bank will not be gobbled up by staff salaries, a gruelling travel schedule, or slick campaign ads on TV.
This gives the candidate the freedom to decide where he wants to focus in terms of campaign logistics and strategy.
Admittedly, having a mere 2.5 million in the bank is in all likelihood woefully inadequate in this day and age, given the nature of the 2008 campaign and its ridiculously early primaries. That all-important deadline of January 1, 2008 is moving closer and closer.
Remember, each candidate will need 100 million bucks by Jan. 1 in order to be competitive.
Even Dr. Paul recognizes that his candidacy is a long shot. But who would have thought back in March that Ron Paul would come in fourth in terms of overall fundraising among Republicans, and third in terms of available cash on hand?
Ron Paul can now be competitive with both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. And this has caught almost everyone by surprise.
Sunday, June 03, 2007
Why Fred Thompson?
Washington, DC (TLS). Syndicated columnist and television personality Robert Novak has a new column, featured in 'Human Events,' entitled, 'Why Fred Thompson?
This article is a must-read for any voter. Novak delineates the various reasons why Fred Thompson is the candidate who can win the Republican nomination and beat any Democratic candidate. But more importantly, Novak describes why this choice is essential for the good of the country.
Read Novak's article here:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20936
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Fred Thompson Takes a Step Closer
Washington, DC (TLS). Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson took the first step on Wednesday toward announcing his bid for the Republican Presidential nomination by forming an exploratory committee.
The former Senator and current star of TV's 'Law and Order' certainly looked like a candidate and sounded very Presidential at a press conference on Wednesday as he made the announcement.
'A Jet Pilot' has more information on the Thompson move here:
http://ajetpilot.blogspot.com/2007/05/law-and-order-star-eyes-08-fundraising.html
The former Senator and current star of TV's 'Law and Order' certainly looked like a candidate and sounded very Presidential at a press conference on Wednesday as he made the announcement.
'A Jet Pilot' has more information on the Thompson move here:
http://ajetpilot.blogspot.com/2007/05/law-and-order-star-eyes-08-fundraising.html
Friday, May 11, 2007
Show Me the Money--Campaign Funds Raised So Far
Washington, DC (TLS). The Liberty Sphere has reported many times that each candidate for President will need a campaign war-chest of at least 100 million dollars by January 1, 2008 in order to mount a competitive campaign.
Let's see who has the most money thus far, in order of their rank in total funds raised:
Over 20 Million, but under 30 Million
--Hillary Rodham Clinton
--Barack Hussein Obama
--Mitt Romney
Over 10 million, but under 20 million
--Rudy Giuliani
--John Edwards
--John McCain
Over 5 million, but under 10 million
--Bill Richardson
Under 5 million
--Chris Dodd
--Joe Biden
--Sam Brownback
--Tom Tancredo
--Ron Paul
--Mike Huckabee
--Duncan Hunter
--Dennis Kucinich
--Tommy Thompson
--Jim Gilmore
--Mike Gravel
As you can see by these official rankings, the three candidates who are well on their way to raising the necessary funds by Jan. 1 are Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Hussein Obama, and Mitt Romney. Those who are lagging a bit behind but are still easily within reach are Rudy Giuliani, John Edwards, and John McCain.
It is our opinion that anyone who at this point has less than 10 million dollars on hand in campaign cash is going to have a very tough time raising the amount needed by that all-important deadline.
For example, in order for Bill Richardson to have 100 million by Jan. 1 he will have to raise at least 14 million bucks PER MONTH between now and Dec. 31, 2007. That is roughly twice as much per month as the TOTAL he has raised thus far.
By anyone's estimation that is an exceedingly tall order.
This is why with each passing day I am growing more and more pessimistic about the prospects of a viable candidacy out of anyone who has raised less than 5 million by now. This bodes ill for candidates such as Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee, I am sorry to say.
Yet this is not an entirely impossible scenario. If a dark horse candidate catches on with a large segment of the electorate, the campaign cash will come rolling in in fairly short order.
But the time is growing short. We can thank the almighty intellects at the helm of both Parties for this sorry state of affairs. Jan. 1 is way too early to start primaries. But the Parties all moved up their primary dates in the name of attempting to be 'the very first one.'
As much as I hate the scenario they have created with primaries taking place as early as January, this is the reality we must face. And reality dictates that in this election cycle a candidate is going to need 100 million by January 1 in order to be competitive in those early primaries.
Let's see who has the most money thus far, in order of their rank in total funds raised:
Over 20 Million, but under 30 Million
--Hillary Rodham Clinton
--Barack Hussein Obama
--Mitt Romney
Over 10 million, but under 20 million
--Rudy Giuliani
--John Edwards
--John McCain
Over 5 million, but under 10 million
--Bill Richardson
Under 5 million
--Chris Dodd
--Joe Biden
--Sam Brownback
--Tom Tancredo
--Ron Paul
--Mike Huckabee
--Duncan Hunter
--Dennis Kucinich
--Tommy Thompson
--Jim Gilmore
--Mike Gravel
As you can see by these official rankings, the three candidates who are well on their way to raising the necessary funds by Jan. 1 are Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Hussein Obama, and Mitt Romney. Those who are lagging a bit behind but are still easily within reach are Rudy Giuliani, John Edwards, and John McCain.
It is our opinion that anyone who at this point has less than 10 million dollars on hand in campaign cash is going to have a very tough time raising the amount needed by that all-important deadline.
For example, in order for Bill Richardson to have 100 million by Jan. 1 he will have to raise at least 14 million bucks PER MONTH between now and Dec. 31, 2007. That is roughly twice as much per month as the TOTAL he has raised thus far.
By anyone's estimation that is an exceedingly tall order.
This is why with each passing day I am growing more and more pessimistic about the prospects of a viable candidacy out of anyone who has raised less than 5 million by now. This bodes ill for candidates such as Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee, I am sorry to say.
Yet this is not an entirely impossible scenario. If a dark horse candidate catches on with a large segment of the electorate, the campaign cash will come rolling in in fairly short order.
But the time is growing short. We can thank the almighty intellects at the helm of both Parties for this sorry state of affairs. Jan. 1 is way too early to start primaries. But the Parties all moved up their primary dates in the name of attempting to be 'the very first one.'
As much as I hate the scenario they have created with primaries taking place as early as January, this is the reality we must face. And reality dictates that in this election cycle a candidate is going to need 100 million by January 1 in order to be competitive in those early primaries.
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