The scramble for the prize of Pennsylvania's delegates to the Democratic National Convention culminates tomorrow as Democrats in the state head for the polls.
Two major trends bear watching.
One, a new national poll shows that for the first time in many months Hillary Clinton has reclaimed the lead over Barack Obama among Democratic voters. On the other hand, another poll shows Obama maintaining his lead, albeit much smaller than just a week ago.
Two, polls in Pennsylvania seem to indicate that Democratic voters are breaking Hillary's way, but we have been fooled by such tracking polls in the past.
Just after Obama's verbal assault on the citizens of Pennsylvania while speaking to a group of San Francisco Democratic Party elites, one poll showed Obama's support plummet faster than a buzzard headed for some road kill. That poll showed Hillary ahead by a whopping 20 points.
No doubt the Illinois Senator has rebounded a bit since the debacle, but it is entirely unclear as to whether or not he has rebounded enough to win. My hunch is that he hasn't.
Thus, if I were placing bets my money would be on Hillary for the Pennsylvania prize. And even if she beats him by only single digits, that win will ensure that she stays in the race to the end.
Monday, April 21, 2008
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