Could it be true?
We have heard reports out of New Hampshire that GOP Presidential hopeful John McCain's crowds have dramatically swelled in recent days and that there is a new buzz being generated about the candidate that he is the one to watch.
On the heels of those reports comes the news, released yesterday, that McCain is in first place in a major poll released over the weekend.
Two things to consider: first, this is the only poll among the top polling organizations that places McCain in the lead, and second, his lead in this particular poll is tenuous. At least three other candidates are within easy striking distance...Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee.
The biggest news of all, however, lays buried within the poll results--news that seems to be confirmed across the board among ALL of the major polling organizations. That news is that Rudy Giuliani's stock has been devalued--dramatically.
The former New York City Mayor has experienced a sharp decline in support over the past three months, totally dropping out of the top tier of candidates in some polls. He barely registers at all in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--the three early primary states.
Aides to the Mayor state that his strategy has been to focus on later primary states that carry huge delegate counts, such as Florida and others.
But this is a risky endeavor, particularly if someone emerges from the first three primaries with momentum.
McCain's stock has risen for three basic reasons--one, the success of the resurgence in Iraq, for which McCain had advocated for years and which has resulted in a dramatic drop in violence; two, his maturity, experience, and wisdom that are vital in a dangerous world; and three, his willingness to amend his positions on issues that do not find widespread support among the voters.
When the electorate takes him to the woodshed over his support of amnesty for illegal aliens and the McCain-Feingold debacle, McCain listens.
Thus, McCain has a good chance at winning New Hampshire. But he has troubles down the line.
So, stay tuned. It's getting very interesting out there. And Iowa looms large on Thursday of this week.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
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2 comments:
you've got to be kidding me... this whole primary thing bears no relation to reason. There is no relationship anymore between popularity and substance (not like this is a terribly NEW occurrence)... but still... kinda makes me sick.
I kid you not, my friend. McCain has better than a 50/50 chance of winning New Hampshire.
And then there is that national poll showing him in first place, although several others show no such thing.
The thing is, McCain is picking up some momentum.
I still think it is more likely that the decision will be made at the GOP Convention in the summer. Unless someone emerges in the primaries as the undesputed front-runner, then we could see a very dramatic Convention.
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