Many who are avid followers of political news may at this point have the impression that whoever wins Iowa and New Hampshire in the GOP primaries is destined to win the nomination. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Ronald Reagan is the prime example.
With regard to Fred Thompson, the fact that the candidate is behind in both states seems to be an ill omen to many who observe the shifting sands of politics.
At this point I simply do not buy it.
The reason is fairly simple. Once we get passed the first cluster of early primary states and head southward to the next cluster of early primary states and beyond, Thompson is in very good shape.
He is way ahead in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. He is ahead in North Carolina. He is in a statistical dead-heat tie in South Carolina, but I am told by one of the most reliable political prognosticators in the area that he fully expects Thompson to be the winner in the state.
Fred is also ahead in Texas and Oklahoma, and in Maine of all places the candidate has been a surprising hit for the very reason he has lagged behind in other parts of New England--his down-to-earth, folksy manner.
It is for this very reason that we expect him to do very well in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana as well.
Louisiana is another state we expect to be added to the Thompson column when it is all said and done.
In short, NONE of the current proclaimed 'front-runners' will win in the South, with the exception of Mike Huckabee, who will win Arkansas in all likelihood.
And this means that Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will have a most difficult time winning the nomination. Florida may well go to one of these RINOS, although Thompson is also showing signs of strength there. But even with Florida, a GOP candidate is going to be hard pressed to win the nomination with only one southern state attached to his belt.
This is not to say that things could not change. In politics anything is possible. But at this point Thompson is slated to win more states in the key demographical areas than any other GOP candidate.
Monday, December 03, 2007
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9 comments:
Fred Thompson is a nice guy and everything, but if you want a real candidate with real values, then you want Hillary Clinton. She's the only candidate with these 4 attributes (there are more but I forget): honesty, integrity, loyalty, and kindness.
Vote for Hillary
I understand that the Arkansas Republicans support Fred over the Huckster to the tune of something like 80% v. 4%. (Yes, there's only one zero in there deliberately.)
Thank you for giving a whole new analysis of the primaries and caucuses. We who strongly support Fred Thompson either hear nothing but negative news, or he is totally ignored by the MSM. This is a very optimistic perspective and is much appreciated.
Linda D, Henderson, Nevada
Don't believe the pundits! The race for the Republican nomination is on and is wide-open. It is more fluid at this point than it has been in six months. Most people are just beginning to look at the candidates. All of the polling results up to this point have been driven by name recognition.
The situation is so fluid that the polls are changing rapidly in both Parties. I heard just today that Mike Huckabee has pulled ahead of Thompson in Oklahoma. Yet Huckabee lags behind Thompson in his own state of Arkansas.
Go figure.
Linda,
Thanks for your kind words.
Yes, I am very optimistic about Fred's chances. I don't think the national polls show the true story.
Vote for Hillary Online,
Honesty, Integrity, Loyalty, Kindness. Are you sure you're not talking about Mother Theresa?
Oh, and let's not forget that Hillary has her most honorable and kind hit-squad--C.L.I.T.--the Clinton Ladies Intervention Team.
WOOHOO!!! Can't wait until Fred wins this and then when he takes on Hitlery. I SURE can't wait for that smackdown!
Oh God I pray Fred! wins and Hillary gets her partys push. I can't wait to see Fred take on the Hildabeast.
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