A Work in Progress: Updated GOP Assessment

With slightly over three months to go until the crucial GOP primary season begins, we have noted some changing trends that have led to an update in our assessment of the various candidates' chances at gaining the nomination for President.

First, it is important to consider the two wild-card variables that have changed the complexion of the race.

Fred Thompson seemed to come out of nowhere in the Spring to announce on Fox News that he was considering a run for the White House. Thompson finally entered the race in September with a big bounce in the national polls.

But as Mike McCarville points out at The McCarville Report, Thompson's bounce seems to be over. His poll numbers have settled to slightly above that of Rudy Giuliani; still on top but sliding a bit.

The question is, has Fred been able to live up to the hype? A shift downward in poll numbers is common when a candidate experiences a sudden, sharp hike. Thus, the slightly lower poll numbers for Thompson may indicate nothing.

Yet media reports from around the country have tended to give Thompson mixed reviews. Many of these were unwarranted and unnecessary, such as the reporter who painted a highly negative picture of the candidate because he perspired profusely and gave out of breath while campaigning outdoors in the searing heat of central Florida.

Such reports are simply not helpful and tend to tell us more about the bias of the reporter rather than the quality of the candidate.

Other reports have given Thompson rave reviews, such as when he exclaimed before a crowd last week, 'My wife will make a much better First Lady than Bill Clinton.' The crowd roared with laughter. And this is not to mention the fact that Thompson has been picking up the support of voters from Florida, to Iowa, to New Hampshire by visiting gun shops, county fairs, and community festivals, and engaging in simple, straight talk about the issues.

Second Amendment supporters have liked what they've heard, and Thompson has stayed on message even in the face of tough questions about gun rights.

We still believe that Thompson is the man to beat, IF conservative GOP voters can get over the fact that he is not Reagan. There will never be another Reagan, and it is unfair to expect Thompson to be anyone but Thompson.

The big question that looms over the Thompson campaign is, has his initial bounce lost so much of its luster that his campaign is beginning to run out of steam? I doubt it, but apparently Newt Gingrich seems to think so.

And this brings us to the second wild-card in this race, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Gingrich had stated prior to Thompson's announcement that he would enter the race only if he detected a faltering Fred Thompson.

Gingrich told reporters last week that he would run if he had 30 million bucks.

Does this mean he sees Thompson running out of steam? Or was this his plan all along?

As we have stated many times before on The Liberty Sphere, while Gingrich has many attractive ideas as a candidate, we fear his negatives among the general populace. His negatives in the polls rival that of Hillary Clinton, and frankly, I have reason to doubt his ability to beat her in the general election.

In spite of the fact that Gingrich is known as a conservative on most issues, he nonetheless supported measures in the House that ran counter to the right to keep and bear arms. Gun Owners of America, for example, gave Gingrich a grade of 'D' on gun rights, while Thompson had a grade of 'B.'

If Gingrich enters the race I see a needless split of the conservative GOP vote between him and Thompson. He is better off staying put and forgetting about running.

Second, what about the rest of the field of candidates?

Mike Huckabee has made some inroads. He is humorous, articulate, likable, energetic. Yet at this point we feel he would make a better choice as a running mate than as the GOP standard-bearer.

Tom Tancredo is another good option for a running mate, but at this point we do not see a chance for his gaining the nomination.

Duncan Hunter was always our first choice as a candidate. He is consistent, solid, focused, articulate, and probably knows his way around Washington better than anyone. Yet his campaign never got off the ground, we are sad to say. This is truly America's loss.

Ron Paul is certainly always an option. While his poll numbers have remained fairly consistent, he could well emerge as a force with which to contend if the others fail to garner widespread support. He would certainly bring to the GOP table a large segment of the population that opposes the War but that also supports the Bill of Rights and the Constitution.

Giuliani and McCain are problematic as always. If we had to choose between the two, it would be McCain, but only because he is a genuine American war hero. And, despite what some conservatives claim, either one would be MUCH better than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

That leaves Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback. Romney is unlikely to win no matter how much of his own money he spends on the campaign. He has simply waffled too much on too many issues. And as for Brownback, for all intents and purposes his campaign is over. 2008 is not his year.

Thus, the race for the GOP nomination is still wide-open for four announced candidates--Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich can be added to this list if he announces.

Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo, and even Duncan Hunter would be excellent choices for the GOP running mate, with the odds tipping toward Huckabee due to his 'rising star' status in the Party and his colorful stump speeches. Huckabee would help the GOP Presidential nominee more than any of the rest, in our opinion.

As we approach the primary season in just over three short months, it is important to bear in mind that in looking over this field of candidates, ANY of the ones named above would be preferable to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Both have stated positions against the Second Amendment, free speech, American free enterprise, and our Constitutional Republic.