Evan Bayh Throws Down Gauntlet on '08 Election

U.S. Senator Evan Bayh, D-Indiana, threw down the gauntlet on the 2008 Presidential, Senatorial, and Congressional elections Sunday by stating that 'this will be a referendum on the Iraq War.'

The Senator's brief statement could well sum up the campaign strategy of the Democratic Party in 2008.

Sensing that Americans have assessed the failures of the Democratic Congress in fulfilling campaign promises in 2006, i.e., the shameless pork barrel spending and the failure to do something about earmarks, the corruption and scandal revolving around key Democratic members of Congress, and the failure of Democrats to unite on the subject of Iraq, apparently the Democrats have decided that the only way they can win is to run once again on the weaknesses of the Bush war plan in Iraq.

In describing the campaign strategy envisioned by the Democrats, Mr. Bayh stated that 'Americans want a change of direction and strategy in Iraq, and they sense that if they vote for Republicans they will be voting to continue the course set by President Bush.'

The thing that Mr. Bayh is describing is essentially a replay of the 2006 election strategy employed by the Democrats. They made the 2006 Congressional and Senatorial elections a referendum on the Iraq War, and they won.

They are hoping that lightening will strike twice in the same place.

It is essential, however, to consider one key variable. Despite the Democrats' insistence that the 2006 elections were all about the Iraq War, the 2006 elections were not all about the Iraq War.

The explanation that Republicans lost Congress due to the Iraq War is a rather simplistic one. In actuality, they lost because of several high-level scandals, the last of which occurred just weeks before the election, and because of the failure of Republicans to be real Republicans.

Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley hurt Republicans badly. And the voters decided that Republicans needed to be punished at the polls. This time, however, the Democrats are sorely mistaken if they think the voters will be any kinder to them in light of their own scandals, which are many. Norman Hsu waits in the wings to wreak havoc on any number of key Democrats, and he is only the tip of the iceberg.

Further, the Republican controlled Congress of 2004-06 dug its own grave by refusing to address out-of-control spending, which ran up huge budget deficits. Traditionally Republicans have insisted on balanced budgets and controlled government spending.

The fact that Republicans failed to be real Republicans cost them at the polls. As Republican Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee states, 'Because of the fact that we did not deliver on our promises, the American people fired us.'

It is already abundantly clear that the Democratic Congress has failed to deliver on its promises. Can they really expect the American people to be any kinder to them than they were to Republicans in 2006?

These are key issues that could well tip the scales in favor of Republicans in 2008.

But the road is fraught with danger at every turn. The Iraq War will be a major issue for good or ill. Republicans cannot win by merely talking about the successes we have had, and it is abundantly clear that we have had many successes. And yes, we love our troops, and they have performed magnificently. However, we must go far beyond that.

Any Republican strategy for victory must acknowledge the failures of the Bush administration in conducting this war from 2002 until the summer of 2007. The surge has worked, but the things we were doing prior to 2007 were a recipe for disaster.

Further, a Republican strategy for victory must include a clearly stated objective with a clearly stated step-by-step plan to win this thing outright, and then gradually get the troops out.

More than likely, a winning Democratic strategy will involve the very same thing, though they would be loathe to admit it. And thus, the Republican and Democratic strategies will be more or less the same, with the expected differences in semantics.

The bottom line? The Republicans can win. And the odds are much more in their favor than Newt Gingrich's prediction of 80-20 odds in favor of the Democrats.