When Elephants Fly

The GOP finds itself in unfamiliar territory during this election cycle. Fundraising by Republican candidates has lagged far behind that of the Democrats. Some sources suggest that Democrats have out-raised Republicans 10-to-1.

Normally it is the Democrats who are lagging behind in fundraising for the Presidential election.

This raises several uneasy questions for the GOP.

Is George W. Bush now so thoroughly unpopular with the electorate that a Republican will be elected to the White House in 2008 only when elephants fly?

Is the electorate, including most Republicans, terribly unhappy and unmoved by the slate of candidates put up by the Republicans so far?

Are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama so wildly popular with the electorate in general that people are hypnotically opening their wallets and purses to empty their pockets into the coffers of the Democrats?

The obvious fact is that an unpopular President can potentially be a significant liability in an election.

Richard Nixon's standing with the public had so deteriorated in 1974 that the midterm Congressional elections that year proved to be a near-death march for the GOP.

Jimmy Carter was such a joke in American politics in 1980 that Republicans swept to power in the U.S. Senate and succeeded in electing Ronald Reagan to the White House.

And who can forget Harry Truman's dismal approval ratings that nearly cost him the Presidency in 1948 and led to his decision not to run again in 1952? Democrats suffered in Congressional elections during the 50s for the first time since 1932.

The thing that sets this election apart from some of the ones cited above is that President Bush is not running. That fact may not be enough to save the GOP from some losses, however.

It depends on how much the electorate blames Republican Senators and Congressmen for the War in Iraq.

Although the Democrats have worked feverishly to distance themselves from their own votes for the War in 2002, the fact remains that the decision to invade Afghanistan and Iraq were bipartisan decisions.

Thus, if the electorate is intent on fixing blame, it must go to BOTH Parties.

Despite widespread public disapproval of the manner in which the Bush Administration has conducted the War, voters will not necessarily hold that against GOP candidates.

The problem is that so far none of the declared candidates have energized the electorate.

Fred Thompson could change all of that. Rumors swirled that he would announce his candidacy on July 4, but this was merely a rumor. He chose that date to announce that his campaign headquarters would be in Nashville, Tennessee once he declared.

Thompson plans to announce in September, after the next Republican debate. This gives him a chance to stay above the fray and use his campaign exploratory committee to raise funds without the stringent federal regulations imposed on the fundraising of a declared candidate.

Ron Paul is another GOP candidate who could easily energize the electorate if he begins to catch on with the public. As an anti-war Republican, his views may resonate with voters who oppose the War in Iraq. Yet Paul is a dyed-in-the-wool stalwart of liberty that is entirely refreshing in modern politics.

Despite the success of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in raising campaign cash, this is very often no indication of how popular a candidate is with the electorate as a whole. It is not unusual for candidates with the most money to fizzle once the primaries are underway.

And we must remember that 48% of the electorate has an entirely negative view of Hillary Clinton. 50% say they will under no circumstances vote for her. Her negatives are higher than any Republican candidate. And with 50% of voters saying there is no way they would ever vote for her, all the money in the world will do her no good.

The same goes for Obama. He can raise money, turn heads, and attract attention like a Hollywood paparazzi magnet. Yet he barely registers 10% support among the general public.

My hunch is that neither Clinton nor Obama are nearly as popular as their campaign cash suggests.

And this means that elephants may well fly in November of 2008.