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Saturday, December 27, 2008

Raising the Stakes by a Few Notches

The potential for war, even nuclear war, looms large as Pakistan amasses its military forces along its border with India. The instability that such a war would create aside, the move raises the stakes by a few notches in the international war on terror.

Pakistan's Afghan border screams for military oversight as the potential for terrorist movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains very high. Washington in particular views the redeployment of Pakistani forces from its Afghan border to its Indian border as a move that vastly weakens the campaign against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

In addition, the move is a blow to Barack Obama's proposed strategy to focus on Pakistan as ground zero in the attempt to cripple and eradicate terrorist activity flowing between Afghanistan and remote regions of Pakistan.

Tensions between India and Pakistan reached a fever pitch when India announced that it placed the blame for the terrorist massacre at Mumbai squarely on Islamic Pakistani militants.

India's outrage over the terrorist attack is justified and its desire for retaliation understandable. However, as one former general and military analyst put it:
"This is a serious blow to the war on terror in the sense that the whole focus is now shifting toward the eastern border," said Talat Masood, a former general and military analyst. "It will give more leeway to the militants and increased space to operate."

At the same time it is entirely unrealistic to expect India to stand down if it has solid proof that Islamic Pakistani militants are responsible for the attack. It may mean, however, that the strategy to rely on Pakistan in the war to contain Afghan terrorism is misguided and may need to be revised.

Given Pakistan's history of being either unable or unwilling to do what is necessary to sniff out and capture terrorists, including Osama bin Laden, I never viewed the Obama strategy as a realistic one to begin with.

If Pakistan cannot or will not control its own border with Afghanistan, then they are entirely unreliable as front-line allies in the war on terror.

For more on this continually-breaking story, click here.

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