Instant Analysis: The Iowa Caucuses

With over 99% of the Democratic vote counted and with nearly 90% of the Republican vote tallied, the Iowa Caucuses have once again shown us the independence and grit of Iowa voters.

Defying all predictions (except for the last minute prognostications late last night), Iowans have picked Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee as their preferred standard-bearers for the Democrats and the Republicans.

Although the Iowa Caucuses are very strategic in American politics due to their uniqueness and thoroughly grassroots process, the system does have its weaknesses. That weakness shows itself in the winners.

Only the most activist of voters participate in the Iowa Caucuses, which require a commitment of time and energy. On the Democratic side this means that Leftist activists by and large choose the preferred candidate. On the Republican side this means that rightwing evangelicals carry the most weight in picking their preferred candidate.

Thus, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee emerge as winners.

While America needs the unique grassroots process as epitomized by the Iowa Caucuses, their importance in influencing who will eventually be the Parties' nominees is highly questionable. So many candidates have won Iowa only to go on to defeat.

It is highly unlikely that Mike Huckabee will be elected President of the United States. And this is why Republicans will eventually reject him.

The same can be said for Barack Obama. He is a first-term U.S. Senator who has ZERO experience in so many areas that are vital to America's well-being. This is particularly true with regard to foreign policy and terrorism.

In fact, neither Huckabee nor Obama have the necessary experience to deal with situations such as Pakistan.

Obama may well win in New Hampshire and Michigan. But by the time the Florida primary rolls around we can expect Democratic voters to have settled down from their 'star-worship' and consider the cold, hard facts that in a dangerous world such as ours it is sheer folly to select a novice as your Party's nominee.

As for Huckabee, voters in New Hampshire already know the folly of choosing a novice. He will not do well in N.H., neither will he gain much traction in Michigan. Huckabee's best hope is to make a good showing in South Carolina, which is still very much in flux.

Both Obama and Huckabee have made 'change' the rallying cry of their respective campaigns. When disgruntled voters throw a tantrum, they usually turn to such candidates, even if they possess very little knowledge or experience in the area of world politics.

But Iowa is different--always has been. The entire electorate nationwide is not quite ready to throw a tantrum, at least not to the degree that they are willing to throw all rationality out the window. For this reason we can look for McCain to win New Hampshire.

It will take the Democrats a bit longer to come to their senses. We predict they will have done so by the time the Florida primary rolls around.