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Friday, January 18, 2008

Down to the Wire: S.C. GOP Primary Poll Numbers

It's 24 hours to go and counting until the big South Carolina GOP primary on Saturday.

According to the latest statewide poll conducted by Survey USA and News Channel 7, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are in a statistical tie for first place.

Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are tied for 2nd place in the poll.

Falling far behind in the low single digits are Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Duncan Hunter.

The weather may be a factor in Saturday's primary. For the 2nd time in 3 days a system is expected to move into the state bringing a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

McCain has polled well among senior adults in South Carolina. But they are also the most likely to stay home in the event of inclement weather.

The big news, however, is that 50% of likely GOP voters in the primary say they still have not made up their minds on a candidate. This means that in actuality the race is up for grabs, particularly among the top four--McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, and Romney.

Thompson has the momentum and has been surging fast, but the question is does he have enough time for his surge to take him to the top and surpass McCain by Saturday.

In addition, when the undecided GOP voters decide on a candidate, how many of them will break in favor of Thompson? My hunch is that a significant number will do so, but it is uncertain as to whether or not it will be enough for him to win.

Thus, this thing is going down to the wire, folks. Don't count anyone a shoo-in and don't count anyone out.

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