Political junkies like me who are old enough to remember the drama of political conventions have secretly held onto a dream, a wish, for 2008--brokered conventions.
I have become convinced that the absolute best thing that could happen for American politics in 2008 is for the choice as to who will head the Republican and Democratic tickets to be made at the respective political conventions this coming summer.
For the past 15 to 20 years, political conventions have become all but obsolete, with the choices for the two Parties being made by the primary system in the various states long before the time for the conventions.
Thus, the conventions have become nothing more than a coronation, a showcase, a week-long political commercial for the already-agreed-upon candidate.
The drama is entirely gone.
This year may change all of that. Despite Hillary Clinton's desire for the Democratic National Convention of '08 to be her coronation, that is highly unlikely given her strong opposition from Barack Obama and John Edwards.
In like manner, as Rudy Giuliani's star fades and Mike Huckabee rides a tide of near-cult-worship, GOP conservatives are left unimpressed. They want to vote for Fred Thompson, but somehow the highly unrealistic expectations placed upon Thompson have tended to hurt him severely.
They may yet decide that he is their man in the long run.
But this decision may well not happen until the GOP National Convention in the summer. Fred appears likely to win South Carolina. He could win in Iowa, but at present it appears either Huckabee or Romney will win, although male voters in Iowa have recently turned away from Huckabee. In New Hampshire, John McCain appears to be surging to the head of the pack.
This could well set up a trend that will continue right up to the Convention--the primaries will be split between 3 or 4 candidates, perhaps even 5, meaning that the decision will have to be made at the Convention.
My, what drama. I love it.
If this scenario is played out, it will mean that deals will have to be made. Compromises will have to be negotiated. Behind-the-scenes power plays will be the order of the day, just like in the old days.
I am reminded of the high drama of the 1980 Republican National Convention, when nominee Ronald Reagan offered the job of running-mate to former President Gerald R. Ford as a means of healing a rift in the GOP.
At first Ford took the offer very seriously. It became the talk of the nation.
And then Ford dropped a bombshell. He told Reagan that he would accept only if Reagan would agree to make Ford a 'co-President,' sharing the duties of the office together.
Wow. The Ford ultimatum dominated the news for days. It was Walter Cronkite's dream.
Then Reagan made the only decision he could. He turned down Ford's offer for the sake of the Constitution and common sense. George H.W. Bush was chosen as his running-mate, and the two went on to beat Jimmy Carter in a landslide.
With the great fluidity of the electorate leading up to the primaries this year, and as no clear front runner is apparent, perhaps this is the year that the political convention will return to politics as a relevant and needed entity.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
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6 comments:
"perhaps this is the year that the political convention will return to politics as a relevant and needed entity."
I have been thinking about this a lot.
The best scenario would be to have both parties go in to each convention having to choose a candidate at the convention.
It would force each to clearly define a platform rather than a nebulous entity that can be re-shaped at will.
It could possibly take the media out of the candidate development business and back to covering the story.
It would call a lot of bluffs.
I think you are really getting at something here, particularly the notion that such a thing would take the media out of the candidate development business.
No greater consequence could possibly ensue than taking that AWAY FROM the media. The primaries, particularly ridiculously early ones, are a prime breeding ground for greater media influence over the process.
And THAT needs to be stopped.
The way the media attaches so much importance to the early primaries is particularly problematic. The press anoints the front-runner and creates a story around him, or her as the case may be. By the time the convention roles around it's a one horse race. The party, at this point, has lost all leverage. The process of deciding on a platform, at the convention, used to be serious business. Now it is a formality. How is a party going to hold a candidate's feet to the fire on a particular issue if that candidate is already a lock?
What happens is, whatever special interest issues that the press are currently pimping are given more importance and the anointed candidate's direction is swayed by "public opinion" rather than party platform. Could you imagine Barry Goldwater or Jack Kennedy being defined by a stance on gay marriage?
I often hear that the problem is a lack of leadership. Is it possible that that lack of leadership lies within the parties instead of individuals? One guy should not be defining a party platform. Reagan didn't, neither did Kennedy. They were both cutting deals when convention time came.
How does a two party system work when the two parties can't clearly define themselves? You end up with compromise rather than give and take. If we compromise on something; all we have done is watered down two ideas and come up wit a non-solution. If I fully concede this and, in turn, you give me that; then we have done some business. Give and take is how the two parties used to do business. But, you aren't ever going to get to that point if you haven't prioritized the issues and defined what you are.
If the media has decided the two candidates, in mid January, it gives them until November to shape the candidates and pretty soon we are down to boxers or briefs.
Yep, and it's tabloid journalism the rest of the way. Boxers or briefs, gay or straight, blah blah blah.
Wonder if anyone is going to ask Hillary if she wears thong underwear?
Do they make a burlap thong?
ROFL! She's going to need much more than that. More like a full-bodied burlap bag.
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