Next Major Change in Political Landscape

The winds of change are a-blowing again as Campaign '08 begins to heat up in earnest. With less than two months to go until the winter primaries that will decide the Presidential nominees for the two Parties, I see a major shift in the making.

Headlining this shift is a subtle but significant change in momentum for both Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. This is bad for Hillary and good for Rudy.

Since the last Democratic debate during which Hillary exhibited clearly just how wishy-washy she is on a variety of issues, meaning of course that she is a flip-flopper, Mrs. Clinton has begun to lose some support in the national polls, not so much among Democratic primary voters but among the general electorate.

The beneficiary of the slippage is Rudy Giuliani, who over the past few weeks has increased his lead over Fred Thompson for the GOP nomination and who is now pulling in at a dead-heat with Hillary in the general election.

Those same polls show that Giuliani has the best chance of beating Hillary in states where Republicans have had little chance of winning in the past few Presidential elections.

The Wall Street Journal, as well as Senior Economics Editor Larry Kudrow of William F. Buckley's National Review, note that the momentum has shifted in favor of Giuliani and away from Mrs. Clinton.

Yet another coup in favor of Giuliani is the Reverend Pat Robertson's endorsement of the Mayor a few days ago, signaling that evangelical Christians are clearly NOT necessarily going to stay home on Election Day if Giuliani is the GOP nominee, contrary to the contention of Christian radio mogul James Dobson.

Pat Robertson's constituency is conservative, evangelical GOP voters, as is Dobson's. But by endorsing Giuliani Robertson has done two significant things. One, he has removed the reluctance of many conservative Christian voters to vote for Giuliani, and two, he has just about insured that a conservative third-Party candidate from the Religious Right will not happen.

Two pieces of bad news lay buried in all the good news concerning Hillary's slipping poll numbers. First, Fred Thompson's candidacy is not taking off as many had hoped. His negatives are higher than any GOP top-tier candidate other than Mitt Romney. Second, gun rights activists certainly cannot take great comfort in the possibility of a Rudy sweep of the GOP.

If there is a silver lining in the midst of the possibility of a Giuliani Presidency, it is that he has staked out definite positions on a variety of issues that most conservative voters can affirm. True, his past record belies some of his present positions. Yet in this campaign he has stated clearly where he stands on gun rights, Socialism, Capitalism, taxes, and fighting terrorism.

We have the interviews, the speeches, the TV appearances, the debates to hold his feet to the fire should he ever hint at deviating from the positions he took during the campaign.

In short, he will owe his political soul to the conservatives who risked their necks and reputations to support him.

We know what Hillary will do. We know what she believes, no matter what her rhetoric. We have learned the Clinton-speak over the past seventeen years. We can deal with Giuliani. We will not be able to deal with Hillary, particularly with a Democratic Congress.

Perhaps sometimes it is exactly as William F. Buckley has stated at times in the past--sometimes it is nothing more than a matter of choosing between an avowed and confirmed Socialist and a dubious Capitalist, but a Capitalist nonetheless. With one you know you are going to get screwed. With the other you can at least negotiate.