What If: Thoughts on Dems' Campaigns So Far

To hear the pundits and major politicians call it, one would think the Democratic race for the Party's Presidential nomination is over. Both President Bush and Newt Gingrich, along with countless politicos, have stated definitively that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.

Certainly this would be the most plausible scenario. From the very start the Democratic nomination has been Hillary's to lose. She has been planning for this moment at least as far back as the end of her husband's second term, and many claim this has been her dream since her days as a lawyer in Arkansas.

While we tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that Hillary will receive her coronation at the Democratic Convention next summer, there are some significant landmines that could blow up her face at any moment, thus sending the conventional wisdom downward in a deathly tailspin.

Several campaign finance scandals lurk just behind her in the shadows, the latest being the Norman Hsu-ponzi scheme to use the illegal 'pyramid' technique to raise millions of dollars that would be donated to Hillary's Senate and Presidential campaigns in the names of thousands of donors who would contribute nothing from their own pockets.

The thing that adds shock-value to the story is that Hsu had been a fugitive from justice for nearly 15 years--a decade and a half during which Hsu played cozy with the Clintons while developing further illegal schemes to pad their pockets with dirty campaign cash.

Further, a man by the name of Peter Franklin Paul, a former crony of Bill and Hillary Clinton, filed a civil fraud lawsuit against the Clintons claiming that both committed felonies in agreeing to a massive $17 million dollar deal in which the Clintons would promote Paul's entertainment company in exchange for stock, cash options, and large contributions to Hillary Clinton's 2000 Senatorial campaign.

Paul introduced a videotape which he claims is evidence that the Clintons engaged in illegal activity, which includes Bill Clinton allegedly destroying Paul's entertainment company in order to get out of the $17 million dollar deal.

The video also allegedly shows that Hillary Clinton had direct knowledge and input into a Hollywood fundraiser organized by Paul at which Hillary was seen and heard engaging in direct solicitation of campaign funds in excess of the $25,000 per person limit--a clear violation of federal campaign finance laws.

This particular case went to trial in the California Court of Appeals, Second Appellate District, two weeks ago. A ruling will be issued in 90 days.

The sleaze factor has always been a ticking time-bomb for Hillary Clinton, as any number of scandals both large and small have the potential for blowing up in her face at any moment in time.

So far she has remained relatively unscathed. If she continues to escape personal culpability in the scandals swirling around her, there is no reason to believe she will not sail to the nomination. The speculation begins at the point that one of these scandals torpedoes the Clinton campaign into oblivion. What then?

It would be much too easy to discount the strength of Barack Obama. While Obama's problems as a candidate begin to multiply if he makes it to the general election, those problems are no problem for most Democratic Party activists, who would likely hand him the nomination in the event that Hillary implodes.

He rings all the right bells for the Party faithful, particularly the powerful leftwing. He is anti-war, pro-abortion, anti-gun, and he has rolled out a trillion dollar tax increase to pay for socialized medicine and a myriad of programs that will vastly expand the scope and size of government.

If Hillary falters, expect the Dems to turn to Obama. If she prevails, he will likely be her running mate.

Cuban Communist dictator Fidel Castro knighted the 'dream ticket' last month as he gave his blessing to such a pairing, stating it would be good for America and good for Cuba.

If, however, Obama turns out to be the nominee, look for someone like Bill Richardson to be chosen as running mate in order to provide balance to the ticket. As it stands now Richardson is a long shot for the nomination, but his stock rises in the event that Hillary is forced to drop out of the race. The Dems could well turn to him instead of Obama, although at this point we do not see that happening.

As for the rest in the Democrats' field of candidates, for all intents and purposes they can fold up their tents and head home. We see no reason for hope at this point for Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Kucinich, or Gravel. And the time is growing short. January 1 will mark the beginning of the primary season in America.

Thus, it is do or die time. Unless one of the dark horses in the race exhibits a miraculous up-surge in support and campaign cash in the final quarter of 2007, we can look for at least five of these candidates to begin dropping by the wayside.

But there is still that nagging question concerning Hillary--what if?