Pollster: Hillary Win 'Inevitable'

Washington, DC (TLS). A pollster for the Hillary Clinton campaign has declared that her nomination by the Democratic Party and her ultimate election as President are 'inevitable.'

Ben Smith of Politico.com bases his conclusion upon polling numbers during the month of June, which show the candidate picking up support across the country at the expense of Barack Obama. Smith also cites various polls which point to Hillary leading Rudy Giuliani by anywhere from 1 to 7 percentage points.

As a pollster whose services are paid for by the Clinton campaign, Smith has certainly done an admirable job in spinning the story to make his client look good.

A closer look, however, reveals major problems with his assessment.

The polls that Smith cites are all limited to a two-person matchup between Hillary and Rudy Giuliani, with the exception of one poll that has a three-way matchup including NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Naturally, that particular poll has Bloomberg drawing votes away from Giuliani, which of course would work to Hillary's advantage.

Never once does Smith cite a poll that pits Hillary against Fred Thompson, for example, or any other conservative/libertarian candidate.

Although there are major differences between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, both represent the same area of the country and share certain northeastern values that do not resonate with the heartland or the South. Thus, a large portion of the electorate tends to view both candidates--along with Bloomberg--as liberal northeastern elitists who do not share the worldview, the values, and the faith of the rest of the country.

To present only those polls that pit Hillary against Giuliani alone is no reliable or credible method to justify the view that her election to the Presidency is 'inevitable.'

In addition, Smith deftly fails to mention Hillary's negatives. No other candidate in either Party carries the huge negatives that are ascribed to Hillary by the electorate. The latest poll indicates that fully 48% of the electorate has a negative opinion of her, and a whopping 50% state that they will NOT vote for her, no matter who is her opponent.

It is certain the Clinton campaign is well-aware of these figures, and that includes Mr. Smith. But at the moment the spin seems more important than the facts.

Come to think of it, in politics the spin is ALWAYS more important than the facts.

If you are of a mind to read Smith's spin, here it is:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0707/Hillary_the_inevitable.html