The Lieberman Equation

Washington, DC (TLS). Senator Joseph Lieberman's recent hint that he may switch to the Republican Party if the Democrat majority in the Senate votes to limit funding for the War in Iraq has set Washington abuzz with speculation and rumor. It is no secret that Lieberman has been one of President Bush's most reliable allies in the War on Terror and its tributaries in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, no one really expected the Connecticut Democrat to actually consider switching Parties, in spite of the fact that Democrats abandoned Lieberman in his last Senatorial bid in favor of an ultra-Leftwing anti-war extremist by the name of Ned Lamont. Lieberman proceeded to run as an Independent and trounced Lamont in the November election.

In spite of a very public and humiliating snub by his own Party, including longtime colleague Chris Dodd, who supported Lamont, Lieberman stated that when the new Congress convened he would take his seat as a Democrat, presumably so that he would be in line for a committee chair.

And this highlights an interesting and intriguing scenario that one could describe as 'the Lieberman equation.' Presently, the Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in the Senate. Should Lieberman bail and jump over to the Republican side of the aisle, not only would there be a major power shift in Congress that would put Republicans in control of the Senate, but Lieberman would still be in line for a powerful committee chair due to his seniority.

Thus, either way, Lieberman will remain as a major power broker, placing him in the driver's seat either as a Democrat or as a Republican.

And this, my friends, is the thing that has Washington abuzz. Naturally the Democrats loathe the thought of losing control of the Senate, particularly when that loss is propelled by a defection of one of its most enduring, and beloved, members. On the other hand, Republicans privately can hardly contain their glee over the prospects of not only having the Connecticut Senator among their ranks but taking power away from the Democrats so soon after the 2006 elections.

Thus, all eyes are on Lieberman and the equation he holds in his hands--the balance of power in the Senate which will most definitely effect the course of the nation over the next few years.

This is a no-win situation for the Democrats. The mere fact that one of their own venerable Senators from the traditionally liberal northeast would even suggest the possibility of a defection raises the specter of the extremist factor yet again. In the minds of the voters the Democrats have moved so far to the Left that even Lieberman can't abide their shenanigans.

And this may well shape up to be one of the biggest political stories of the decade.