Nall, Baxley, and Riley in the Final Stretch

Libertarian Loretta Nall, Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley, and Governor Bob Riley square off in less than a week in Alabama's gubernatorial election. The following is a brief analysis of voter perceptions and trends as we move into the final stretch of the campaign.


What Loretta Nall has been lacking in name recognition, money, and high-profile endorsements by the largest media outlets, she has more than made up for in substance, creativity, and honesty. Running her campaign on a shoe-string budget, Nall found herself propelled into the spotlight in the waning days of the campaign as the Associated Press published a major story on her views, which was carried nationwide. Nall was soon receiving invitations to appear on Fox News, MSNBC, NBC Today, and numerous radio programs as far away as Toronto, Ontario. She has been able to capitalize on the attention, and in my opinion she has made some inroads among voters. The fact that her opponents have their obvious deep flaws has led voters to recognize that there is a clear alternative to the candidates of the two major Parties.

I don't see Nall winning this race, but she could well make Libertarian history in the state by being the first candidate of the Party to receive a double-digit percentage of the vote.


Lucy Baxley comes across as a sincere, down-to-earth southern woman who doesn't have a clue as to how to conduct a campaign. While no one can doubt that she is 'good people,' she has made a series of blunders that have not helped her case, including playing the gender card in claiming that Governor Riley dismisses her because she is a woman. That may or may not be true, but the candidate's penchant for incessant whining has evidently led many voters to dismiss her, but not because of her gender.
Her poll numbers are down in spite of a series of scathing revelations about Riley. It appears at this point that Nall is the one who is benefiting from both Baxley's and Riley's missteps.


Bob Riley has been stung by three overriding negatives. First, there is the Masonic scandal surrounding Riley's membership in a 'no-blacks-allowed' Lodge. Then, there is the Cato Institute rating of 'F' because of the Governor's dreadful record on taxes. The voters rejected his plan three years ago to implement the largest tax increase in the state's history, to which the Governor responded by signing an executive order to reassess property on an annual basis. And third, there is the explosive story that broke a couple of weeks ago indicating that Riley may have received funds that were funneled through a PAC from Indian casino interests in Mississippi that allegedly threw their support behind Riley in order to benefit from the casino ban in Alabama. Records indicate that disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff may have been a part of this deal.

Polls show Riley cruising to an easy victory, and frankly, his numbers have been high enough to make it nearly impossible, in my opinion, for him to lose. Even if his numbers dropped by ten percentage points he would still win with a majority of the votes cast.

This is a shame. Nall clearly has the best ideas out of the three. But, barring a last-minute bombshell of drastic proportions over the weekend, I don't see anything that would stop Riley from being elected to a 2nd term.