Gas Prices Down, Bush Numbers Up

Is it really just the economy, stupid?

One can make a case that there are many other weightier matters on the political agenda since the war on terror ensued. However, when it comes to the President's everyday poll numbers, apparently one need look no further than the trends in gas prices. As the prices at the pump go up, Bush's numbers go down. As the prices at the pump plumment, Bush's numbers start back up.

The Presiden't popularity now stands at 44%, according to a recent USA Today/Gallup poll. This represents a five-point gain since the last poll was taken. Within that short period of time, the one variable that changed was the price of oil. For example, in one area of the country gas prices topped out at $2.94 per gallon at the end of August. Today that figure is $2.35 per gallon. Some areas of the country are reporting a much steeper decline. One pundit who follows trends in oil prices suggested the possibility of a nationwide average of just $1.15 per gallon at the pump by the time the declines in prices are over.

Consumer confidence has been emboldened by the latest trends. As oil prices decline Americans feel more confident about the economy. And the more confident they feel about the economy the more confidence they tend to have in their elected officials. This would seem to improve dramatcially the prospects of the Republicans retaining majorities in both houses of Congress. Recent polls show that the Republicans are quickly closing the gap on early Democrat leads in key races around the country, in both the House and Senate.

However, it is probably too early for the Republicans to start their victory celebrations just yet. It is still quite a long time until the November elections. Much can happen in that period of time to change the nature of the political landscape. We still face a ticking timb-bomb in Iraq as Americans increasingly grow weary of our seemingly endless campaign there. Iran may perhaps pose an ever greater threat than Iraq as they stand on the brink of becoming a nuclear power. The tension between Isreal and the Muslim world is not going away, and one has to wonder how long it will take for the violence to flair in that region once again.

These landmines and others can be very tricky during an election cycle. The bit of good news for the President, however, is that local races tend to be about local issues. Certainly this is not always the case as Congressional and Senate candidates are prone to hitch their wagons to issues of national interest. The problem so far has been that each time the Democrats have pushed the notion that midterms elections are a referendum on the President's handling of his job, they lose. Yet they continue down this path, even today, making George W. Bush the 'star' of their latest ad campaign, as if this is somehow doing to help them gain seats in Congress.

It may well be that one of these days their ill-fated plan may work. On the other hand, it has been said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time.

And, as long as gas prices continue downward, particularly over the Fall and Winter, it may well turn out to be a very long season for the Democrats.